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SpinDistribute.com Article Directory

The following article was published in our article directory on October 4, 2012.
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What is Schedule Risk Analysis and Why Do It?

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Barbecana - Schedule Risk Analysis Experts

We have all heard about projects running late, but late compared to what? How do we know our expectations were reasonable? Often they are not, dooming the project to "failure" before it even starts. One major reason for unrealistic expectations is that plans do not take uncertainty into account. Project networks exhibit "merge bias" which is an example of what Sam Savage calls the strong Flaw of Averages (The Flaw of Averages, Wiley, 2009).

Merge bias describes the situation when two or more paths merge into one, i.e. when any task has more than one predecessor. The successor task cannot start until all its predecessors are complete. If these predecessors have independent and uncertain durations, such that more than one of them could be the one which controls the successor, the average date when the successor can start is later than the date which would be calculated either by deterministic CPM or by traditional PERT. (Although PERT purports to take uncertainty into account, it looks only at the path which is most critical.)

This merging bias builds up so that the expected project finish date can be very much later than would be calculated based upon expected durations, which is why both CPM and PERT can both produce wildly optimistic results.
Schedule Risk Analysis addresses this problem by modeling uncertainty in the estimated durations of tasks, and using a process called Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability distributions of project outcomes, like project finish date and cost. Schedule risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation allow us to make informed statements like "there is a 90% chance that the project will finish by 31st July", instead of "the project will finish on 15th July", which is almost bound to be wrong.

Full Monte is a schedule risk analysis system that makes this process fast, easy and affordable, and presents results in easy-to-understand graphs and bar charts. And it works from inside Microsoft Project as a fully-integrable Microsoft Project add-in. The result is projections you can hang your hat on. And you won't lose your shirt on penalty payments either.

Barbecana offers Full Monte, the new name in schedule risk analysis and risk analysis software. Full Monte operates as a Microsoft Project add-in making it the ideal project management tool for those in construction project management, technology project management and more.

Keywords: risk analysis, schedule risk analysis, full monte 2.0

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