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The following article was published in our article directory on October 17, 2011.
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Silver Dollar Values Prices Probably Be Skyrocketing As Indian Festival And Wedding Season Starts Out

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Frank Allen Brandenburg

The gold and silver purchasing season has started in India, the world's largest consumer of gold and fourth largest consumer of silver. Each metals play a substantial role in the nation's cultural festivals as well as the wedding season, a factor that greatly influences the seasonal holiday price movements of gold and silver.

As any knowledgeable silver buff will tell you, the white metal's strongest rallies of the year are usually in autumn and winter (2008 being an anomaly, obviously). As outlined by the seasonal analysis Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research conducted for the period between 2000 and 2009, in between early September and early December, silver tends to rally 11.4 percent higher on average. After a dip in early December, "on average over the last decade, silver has surged 13.5 percent higher during January and early April." Hamilton discovered that, statistically speaking, the best months for silver prices are November, January, February and May when 4 percent to 5 percent gains can be expected.

The 2010 autumn and 2011 winter gains in silver were very impressive, with silver rising steadily from about $19.50 an ounce to $30.50 an ounce in between early September and early December and from around $31 an ounce in January 2011 to $50 an ounce by late April 2011.

However as useful as seasonal charts might be in determining the correct course for your investment choices, "seasonals are merely secondary drivers of prices, tailwinds or headwinds," Hamilton cautions. A wide range of other factors can influence price moves in a given period.

An important factor to think about in making projections about silver prices for September through April is an agriculturally healthy or poor monsoon season in India, where rural farmers purchase roughly 70 percent of gold and silver. The country is one of the world's biggest producers and customers of crops.

Cultural beliefs in the rural areas lead farmers to invest their cash almost entirely in precious metals rather than hold it in a bank account. "They don't trust banks, they trust their jeweler," stated Bhargava Vaidya, bullion expert and director of B.N. Vaidya & Associates, in a Wall Street Journal article earlier this year. Preferring to buy jewelry, coins and bars, more and more farmers are embracing silver as an alternative to gold as prices for the yellow metal surge higher and greater.

"Silver coins and bars have a very significant meaning to the rural community. We know of farmers who buy silver bricks in several kilos and lay them at a not-so prominent spot in their field, praying for a good harvest," stated bullion dealer Tanna Ghosal, Shivom Seth of Mineweb reported last month. The buried silver becomes the harvest if the following year brings a inadequate monsoon season.

The June-to-September monsoon time of year is crucial for staple Indian crops including corn, cotton, rice, soybean and sugarcane as nearly 60 percent of farms rely on monsoon rains for irrigation. Not enough rainfall means lost crops and less money for farmers to buy gold and silver, which could significantly impact prices in the months of January through April, and even in September through December as the markets anticipate slipping demand from this region following a disappointing monsoon season.

"Last year the monsoon was excellent," said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, resulting in surging Indian demand for gold and silver in the winter months. The wholesome monsoon season in 2010 was followed by record grain production in 2010-11 for an estimated total food grain production of 241.56 million tonnes, up 5.4 percent from the previous season.

Early in the season, there were concerns this year's monsoon down pours would be too far below normal to yield healthy crop levels, ultimately resulting in depressed silver and gold demand from India's farm owners. However, August has seen periods of substantially heavy showers, and although rainfall for the week ending August 24th was apparently 8 percent below normal levels, officials at the state-run India Meteorological Department told reporters that "next week's rainfall is expected to be either normal or above normal." As of August 18th, India has experienced rainfall levels of 11 percent more than normal for this season.

The monsoon period has also had a wide distribution pattern which means crops are healthy across India, leading the Agriculture Ministry to project a bumper harvest for the 2011-12 crop year. We'll currently have to wait until the winter months in 2012 to see if that wholesome crop season translates into robust demand for physical silver from India's rural growers, causing a strong price rally in January through April of 2012. Today would be a great time to invest in gold and silver before the Indian buying season gets into full swing and Indian demand hikes the precious metals prices even higher.

Keywords: what is the price of silver,silver price in India,silver prices today,silver coins,silver bars,silver bullion,gold and silver prices,silver jewelry,jewelry,investments,investing in silver

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