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The following article was published in our article directory on April 19, 2011.
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The car market for April will thaw

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Recently, be in Beijing auto market trading center of beichen Asian monthly information conference, the state information center information resources director, said in the first quarter of this year total auto market operation conditions show that the 2011 policy more negative than positive role.

Total think, 2009, 2010 in automobile revitalize policy stimulating, auto market realized the ultra-high speed growth for two years, and this year it faced a series of negative impact of it, such as car purchase tax preferential and 2.5% in old change of the new policy, oil prices rise, and from Beijing limit brand policy appearing and the formation of other cities powerful demonstration effect. He says, only Beijing limit brand policies in car market to the influence of three percent;

But the recent round of oil prices to rise, automobile industry negative effects may even greater than 2002 | 2007 this time the effects of rising oil prices. The reason for this is that the oil price rises before in economic growth rate is rising and purchasing power under the background of increasing, while the happening this year raised oil prices in the GDP is the background of the fall happened. Thus, the rate of growth of automobile market this year, good word may approach to 15%, bad word may be approaching 10%. He says the passenger vehicle market in 2011 is the largest possible return to normal operation, is growing at 10 to 15%, callback to a larger extent.

Car sales for year to the first quarter of the total significant slowdown, appear, this basically is analyzed by the end of 2010 car this year ahead of Spring Festival holiday spending overdraft and factors played a leading role, since April market will gradually restored to predict velocity level. He said, suffer from and Beijing auto revitalize policy restricted the influence, 2010 rumors from October to December 2010, inside this paragraph of time the market advanced overdraw a 50 year million vehicles sales.

Although growth in the first quarter, but total market decline, said the state information center is still insist on the 2011 auto market will return to normal operation of the judgment. The so-called normal operation, is in long-term potential growth rate to the axis fluctuate.

Total automobile industry growth, said the main influence factors are three, namely long-term potential growth rate, economic growth speed and policy factors. For long-term potential growth rate will tell, since 2009, our country has entered the auto industry development, the second forecasted the potential growth at around 15%; In this growth period, growth after the present high low before characteristics.

Total think, 2011 economic situation on automobile market will produce some negative influence how much is expected in 2011, slightly below the pace of economic growth in 2010, but enough to constitute the normal operation of automobile market support action, and controls for the development of the automobile market in the next few years will be formed a good effect.

Total said that the state information center, tracking data indicate began late march, passenger cars sales have improved, so since April market gradually restored to predict velocity level of probability. But he also notes that car manufacturers and distributors of terms, this year still facing the rigorous test, because everybody has been used to 40% | 50% of growth, and many decisions are formulated according to such trend, and now is the time to make adjustments. To this, total auto market analysis when the growth is 40% | 50% of time, almost all the car enterprises can achieve high-growth; And when this growth dropped back to 10% | 15%, competitive enterprise can still achieve high growth, less competitive enterprise will appear negative growth, is "several glad several sorrow".

As long-term about car industry economy and auto market trend, senior analyst to the relevant aspects total this year, don't again come calling for automobile consumption policy against other, also hope more efficient cars subsidy policy years also had better not quit. He thinks, metropolitan transportation cure plugging scheme not only from the demand side to control, but with the other methods to improve; Other cities come to blocking policy if taking administrative means, try choosing economic means, otherwise when more negative factors, stacked auto market situation may this year than quarter also grim.

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