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The following article was published in our article directory on January 25, 2011.
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RMB Trending Decided China's Economic Direction This Yesr

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

RMB trend this year China economic trends decided how much of the problem though RMB appreciation no clear answer, but if the Chinese government still can take more active and steady way management exchange rate, and allow the yuan to appreciate faster speed (possibly 5% above), that would release many deep economic power, accelerate economy whole again balance and reforming, finally can also reduce China's domestic savings rates and trade surplus.

China's economy by 2011, growth path clearly visible. In under the common function of external and internal factors, growth will slow, could fall to less than 9%, while inflation may be slightly higher than the 4.5%, "soft landing" is the economic situation of the most likely. In order to curb inflation and promote transformation and take necessary means, may let slow. Faced with the complexity of the domestic and international economic situation, the RMB exchange rate adjustment is all problems, one of the most key elements -- either for structure adjustment, or curb inflation.

Remodeling growth pattern is urgently needed

After 30 years of economic growth, China today after the structure adjustment is imminent. Adjustment point is by increasing domestic consumption and reduce exports, success make economic "turn". Undoubtedly, the export-oriented development strategy, so far, has been successfully realize economic output, the trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves of rapid growth. But in the long run this growth pattern is clearly unsustainable. China's long-term surplus and the build-up of foreign-exchange reserves, had been in foreign face formidable political and economic pressure. This makes China's economic growth structure of "rebalancing" become necessary.

2009, the global financial crisis under the influence of China's exports a 34% reduction, domestic-demand (net exports) to GDP growth contribution is actually negative! In the growth rate, investment 9.1% contributed 8.7%, domestic consumption contribution 4.1% and net exports contribution is - 3.7%. In 2010 expected growth in domestic demand (10%) is expected to contribute investment and consumption, and since China's exports 7.8% recovery, domestic-demand also have expected to contribute 2.2%. (though, export real economic significance, is far greater than this simple GDP growth contribution algorithm, because the whole export department employment through "multiplier effect" affect whole the whole economic and other department).

In the international economic recession background, China 2009 mode of economic growth has changed greatly, its characteristic is the surge in direct investment makes up domestic-demand atrophy brings negative growth. For many years, investment has always been China's economic growth of main engine. But 2009 investment scale particularly big, accounts for 90% of the pulling power of economic growth. By 2010, the investment share of contributions decrease (along with the stimulus plan exit) and export share rises (with China's main exports DuiXiangGuo economic recovery) under the dual role of economic growth mode, can return to "normalise". Issue is: whether China has begun by increasing domestic demand reduce change its growth mode domestic-demand?

By 2010, though investment proportion than 2009 has receded, but it is still the most important source of economic growth, and in the foreseeable future, investment will continue to promote the growth of China's economy. Although the past 10 years infrastructure has improved, but China for infrastructure appetite is very big still, this is the obvious facts -- China now boasts after the United States, the world's second highway system, and high-speed railway is ahead of the world. In addition to these infrastructure beyond, China also needs to has invested heavily in the environmental protection project, such as new energy and new water such green industry, not to mention the various social infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals, public housing and urban public facilities, in order to satisfy the demand of rapid urbanization.

So China, in the next few years could remain high rate of investment. In 2009, for example, by using the method for calculating the expenditure of GDP, the proportion of investment, close final consumption is 47.7% 48% (including governments and ordinary household consumption), and the actual ordinary household consumption accounts for only 36% more (general state of the ratio is more than 50-60%). This serves to show from the demand on look, raise the proportion of domestic consumption motorists.

China's economic growth pattern mainly the root of the problem is to supply. Among them high savings rate is a major factor. China's consumption is low, largely because China high savings rate - 2000-2008 between accounted for GDP 48%. In fact, savings rate in 2009, more than all up to 52%, high savings rate of the average of the east Asian economies is much higher. Such high savings behind many factors, including lower FuYangLv, low level of urbanization, high growth, social insurance system is not perfected and the height of the income inequality.

The other side of the high savings rate is low consumption and natural. China (family) consumption rate 36% of well below most countries, especially the United States of 70%. In general, low consumption and see caused by high savings is long-term social and economic factors. To change, also need long time. Therefore, China's consumption rate may continues to lag behind investment and investment will continue to become the main source of economic growth.

China's economic transformation path undoubtedly facing many structural obstacles. If we put our attention from domestic economy towards global economic pattern, so if China cannot achieve a balance in economic significant breakthrough, will be for the global economy rebalancing have serious effects. An international trade surplus, from a macroeconomic perspective, reflects the savings glut of this country, and China's trade surplus, but other countries trade net deficit on the other side of the just.

As it is hard to see China through ascension domestic consumption to (relative is the very hard through ascension domestic savings) promote economic growth, China to reduce dependence on foreign trade is never easy. China's export in 1991 by 2009 annually to 19% of rapid growth. As long as China export continue to be competitive, exports will continue to play in China's economic growth of another locomotive role. Besides Chinese economies of scale and external economy brings the comparative advantage of labor productivity, outside of China in the past few years have also made long

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