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The following article was published in our article directory on January 12, 2011.
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RMB exchange rate this year will show what trend?

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

In recent days, RMB continue to rise, broke the 2005 "collect change since the longest continuous appreciation against the dollar on record. So, this year is concerned, what factors affecting the RMB exchange rate movements, what problems and special concern, and this would be comprehend and grasp the key RMB exchange rate movements.

RMB exchange rate influencing factors

We think, 2011 RMB exchange rate movements affect the main strength may include four aspects:

First, the United States factors, especially the dollar to RMB exchange rate movements, the influential. Expected 2011 the U.S. economy is expected to reach about 3% of the world economic growth, the contributions of greater than 2010. In contrast, the European economy is not optimistic. Therefore, relatively speaking, as the world's two major currencies, the performance of the dollar than euro dollar not only won't appear continued decline, perhaps even a reversal.

Second, the world's major economies condition, and exchange rate of RMB worldwide disputes, and may also be affected.

Third, each major economies inflation situation, and the differences of all rates RMB exchange rate may also be affected. China even though the present the one-year deposit interest rate 2.75%, deduct inflation, actual socan lend more than 2%, namely still current interest rate level of domestic excess liquidity appeal quite limited, but in the outer rim of hot money charm has increased gradually. Judging from the inflation expectations, at present interest rates still difficult to curb inflation, intermediate inflation index will continue to rise, but rise may slow, with China's degree by loose monetary policy to stable transition, again the possibility of raising interest rates are getting more and more serious. Can foresee, euramerican economies and the spread of China be amplified.

Fourthly, China to the influence of RMB internationalization appeal.

RMB exchange rate may trend

By the above-mentioned aspects factors, 2011 RMB exchange rate movements will have the following possibilities:

If the us economy improving, dollars more stable, do not appear devalues or devaluation expected, then China and other emerging market countries face "forced type" appreciation pressure will be weakened. But from China's own perspective, foreign exchange reserves and RMB exchange rate is subject to the U.S. the does not appear substantial change, therefore continue to advance RMB internationalization is still the Chinese government's first choice.

McDonald's and caterpillar company recently became the first sale RMB bonds of American non-financial category company, Russia's second-largest bank VTB become Asian emerging market outside the issuance of RMB bonds of the first bank offshore. At the beginning of the year, the world bank also first issue of scale for $76 million RMB bonds. Future as the renminbi in the global market, must use the expansion of the scale of RMB push the high international demand, hence the need for RMB exchange rate more in line with market expectations. So, increase flexibility and appreciation of RMB exchange rate is New Year should be the topic of righteousness.

If the us economy does not appear better or because the new quantitative easing and appear new dollar, then developed and emerging market countries between economic growth difference can magnify, and will be reflected in the exchange rate. If appear national currency exchange rate general goes up, the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi will not be at ease. As the largest emerging economies, China's currency issue has been hit by the parties concerned, and often become developed countries transfer domestic economic contradiction scapegoat.

By 2010, a stronger yen in October, the Japanese government intervention measures, in order to subside international accused, the Japanese government has argued that the Japanese yen appreciation in certain degree is speculative caused, and fundamental flaws. The Japanese government intervention just to let things return to a normal order. In contrast, the Chinese renminbi exchange rate policy is to blame for the market, to the imbalance of the direct reason obfuscate and transfer of focus. Therefore, if appear worldwide exchange rate of RMB will still be contention, by "forced type" revaluation pressure.

From the above analysis, we may safely draw the conclusion that 2011 RMB appreciation is still the melody, and flexibility as yuan reform further enhanced. But for appreciation of the amplitude, not as looks so sure. The us dollar, the euro, emerging markets of the relative change in the currency of the country will influence the yuan appreciation pressure on the movements of the; Meanwhile, the Chinese government will push the extent of RMB internationalization also decides the renminbi appreciation, and national interest rate difference was not become the dominant factors of RMB exchange rate.

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