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The following article was published in our article directory on December 29, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: Amanda xzh
The Government of Japan has finally ushered in by the end of reassuring economic data. 28, data released in Japan in November year on year growth in industrial production, the first time in six months, the export-dependent Japan, it is undoubtedly a good sign. Some analysts believe that the data reduced the possibility of the Bank of Japan relaxed overweight.
However, the same day another economic data released showed that the core of the November consumer price index (CPI) has been 21 months straight down, "the specter of deflation," continued to plague the Japanese economy. In addition, the Japanese yen against the dollar hit a three-week high of 28, these factors still play a role in Japan's economic recovery obstacles.
Reduce the demand for industrial data and then relaxed
28 Japanese Economy and Industry quick report released statistics show a seasonally adjusted basis, the Mining Industry in Japan in November this year, the production index of 91.8, the chain rose by 1.0%, there is six chain increased. Released the same day survey of manufacturing production forecast this year, production in December rose 3.4% in the ring next year, is expected to rise 3.7% in January. Industrial production growth is expected to clear trades for the transport machinery, electronic components, electrical machinery, iron and steel industry.
Foreign media analysis, the data suggest that brisk demand in Asia will help secure Japan's economic recovery early next year to continue to maintain posture, and reduce the likelihood the central bank to relax the policy immediately. Bank of Japan in October committed to maintaining historically low interest rate, and set up a 5 trillion yen (about 60 billion U.S. dollars) in funding pool for the purchase of bonds from the Treasury to the various types of assets. Bank of Japan policy makers said many times previously, if the economic slowdown more severe than expected conditions, then the size will expand the pool of funds is a clear choice.
HSBC Securities Japan chief economist Seiji Ozawa Whitehead said that industrial production increased exports began to rise again, and this economy as a whole is a positive factor. Stimulus after the expiration of short-term outlook will depend on the Japanese economy to what extent the export recovery.
In addition, METI also announced the date of the data showed that the overall retail sales in November rose 1.3%, reversing last month's decline in the situation, the same improvement for the Japanese economy passed a positive signal.
Or reconsider the central bank forecast prices
However, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs 28 published data show that removal of the larger changes in fresh food prices, this year in November Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) was 99.4, down 0.5%, a decline of 0 .1%. This is the index for the first 21 months fell. Although the market fell less than expected 0.6% decline in value, the data showed that Japan's domestic demand remains weak.
Another data showed household spending in Japan in November by 0.4% year on year, the market value of the expected growth of 0.3%. The Japanese Health Ministry data released on 28 shows, in November the overall cash income wage earners fell by 0.2% a year earlier, declining for the first time in nine months.
The data show that deflation is still lingering in the background, consumer spending will remain weak, which also led to pressure the Japanese economy. Member of the Bank of Japan decision vector sub Suda said this month that the United States, beginning in April 2011 in the next fiscal year, prices will continue to maintain a sustained decline, and the central bank's forecast that is different from the Japanese Bank of Japan is expected to occur over the same period a moderate inflation.
"Bank of Japan may reconsider its price forecast," Nikko Cordial Securities chief market economist at the truth in the data released under the rocks before, "said the ending time of deflation is likely to further delay." Bank of Japan decision-making committees in 10 May forecast that the next fiscal year is expected to rise in Japan's core CPI 0.1%, but some analysts believe that the forecast was too optimistic.
Moreover, Japan's unemployment rate held steady in November at 5.1%, in line with market expectations in value. However, the data show that increasing the gap position, which suggests the uncertainty of the economic outlook, companies are still cautious attitude of additional manpower. November shortfall of jobs increased by 1.7% the previous month, to February 2009 the largest increase since a year earlier, an increase of 22.6% to December 2000 to the largest increase.
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