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The following article was published in our article directory on December 28, 2010.
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Australian Dollar Trend is Expected to be Very Optimistic

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

China rate hike news did not form a significant foreign exchange market hit. Yesterday, the euro edged higher against the dollar, Australian dollar fell after a brief return to parity at the top. Some analysts hold the trend of the Australian dollar is expected to be more optimistic, but there are a number of potential factors that could cause volatility in Australian dollars, as countries including China, the withdrawal initiative.

Withstand the risk event

In China, outside the euro zone interest rates and the national rating last week, under the impact of storm, the performance of commodity currencies this week after opening strong, just drive in the early Asian session on Monday fell to 0.9980, more than three weeks later to return to the high point of 1.0050.

The last difference is, this time foreign exchange rate hike was significantly smaller. October 19, after China raised interest rates suddenly, overnight, the United States refers to the sharp rebound in non-US currencies and commodities lower pressure, the Australian dollar fell more than 2% intraday.

Christmas before the arrival of the euro area peripheral countries still continue to unfold the ratings controversy, Moody's announced on Tuesday may cut ratings of Portugal, as well as the reputation of the Greek Zhou Erhui rating on negative watch list and Hungary on Thursday and cut Portugal's sovereign ratings; but a good trend for commodities last week, has also been boosted commodity currencies, the Australian dollar above parity again to return, analysts say, which seems to indicate that investor confidence is being restored.

Transaction pointed out, the Australian dollar is expected to be the next test on November 5, floating exchange rate since the record high of 1.0183.

China factor

Commodity currencies received the last two years, Chengdu is not bad, this year the Australian dollar is up about 20%, while for 2011 the trend of Australian dollar and other currencies, analysts retain the optimism cautious.

Australian dollar currency movements and other goods and commodities highly correlated, so this factor can not be ignored. ANZ Bank last week, analysts pointed out that Europe has not evolved into a total debt of the credit crisis, Australian commodity prices will provide more support, they said the current indicators of risk appetite at the highest level since April, suggesting Australia 2011 element may be a good start.

China Merchants Bank analyst Dong-Liang Liu also told reporters that in 2011, with the gradual recovery in the U.S. economy, emerging economies continue to maintain strong demand, as well as developed countries, low interest rate environment in general, he expects the CRB index of commodity prices represent still a good performance, rising tone will be maintained throughout the year, which will greatly support the Australian dollar.

In addition, a relatively strong economy in Australia, and the highest rates of major currencies, but also still support the Australian dollar.

But in front of commodity currencies is not perfect "Avenue of Stars" next year, will face Australian dollar is still variable, and may therefore face the periodic fluctuations.

One variable is the China factor. Hot demand for commodities in China, will China's economy with the trend of commodity linked currency. China's central bank raise interest rates this month and the currency impact on the Australian dollar lower, but still can not be ignored, most analysts have pointed out that China's rate hike cycle, or has already begun.

Modest tightening in China will not change the Australian dollar rise steadily in the first half of 2011, the trend is the gradual rise of inflation by the global trend to decide. So at least in the first half of 2011, the Australian dollar remained steady trend of higher cautiously optimistic.

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