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The following article was published in our article directory on December 28, 2010.
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Global Economy Will Continue Progressive Recovery Situation

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Outlook 2011, the consensus is one of gradual recovery in the global economy will continue to trend of the recovery efforts will be slightly weakened. According to the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy in 2011 is expected to grow by 4.2%, compared with 2010, down 0.6 percentage points. Consensus on this question may be less, but think again, or start from two dimensions: the first dimension of the global economy is not as-expected recovery in 2010 as possible. I think that is still possible, though relatively small. Support-than-expected recovery in global economic power is likely to quickly recover from the United States, and consumption continued to improve, further growth potential in emerging markets, mining and financial conditions caused by the rapid improvement of the investment blowout. Run the end of 2010 the status of the global economy shows that these may be sporadic power. The second dimension is the world's economy will not be returning to, and has little reference to the "second bottom." I think the consensus on global economic growth, the possibility of such a downward deviation is greater than the upward deviation. First, the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, never expected to be as like the European economy and the global economy truly painful experience, and accompanied the debt crisis of the end of 2010 heating up again in Europe in 2010, no restrictions may be extended growth 2011; Second, in 2010-than-expected global economic recovery has failed to form a powerful global employment situation stimulate job growth without sequelae may be the real show in 2011; Third, the sub-prime crisis has ended, European debt market crisis has also distracted the attention of the United States, but should not be overlooked is that the U.S. property market did not bottom out the anticipated rebound in the property market will continue even weak; Fourth, emerging market growth has been non-stop ten years, the possibility of a higher base of 2011 to achieve a strong chase the remaining doubts.

Outlook 2011, the consensus of the second is the recovery of structural differences will increase further, the recovery efforts in emerging markets continues to significantly stronger than the developed markets. The tone of this consensus may not be too controversial, but for the "structural differences" in the content, may need to re-think a little more. It is noteworthy that the 2011 "structural differences" may have more to show for the "point and point" between the country-specific differences, rather than "surface and surface" between the regional differences. Because of internal differences between developed economies, may further increase, while the market may be overestimated to some extent a "strong Europe and the U.S. weak," the differences, the U.S. economy can shift to achieve an effective engine of growth, the consumption end of 2010, a sudden recurrence of force is sustainable, handicapping the structure of government stimulus would affect the effectiveness of currently surviving more variable, while the European economy in 2010, reflecting the strong resilience, people can easily underestimate the Europeans in 2011 In the act, therefore, the United States has been strong in Europe appear weak short-term cycle of this mismatch can continue until the year 2011, there is a great variable. In addition, the QE2 start easing policy in developed economies, after a new upsurge in Japan is relatively lower level of inflation the U.S. and Europe will make it super made in this round of money to enjoy greater economic growth in the power and smaller economic costs, and may behind the United States and Europe in the long run it in the context of strong growth in the most excited.

According to Goldman Sachs, the latest research of macro team, from the macroeconomic stability, macroeconomic conditions, human capital, technical and political considerations in five areas in 2010, growth in Brazil and China continue to improve the environment, and India has stagnated, a significant decline in Russia, different direction of change in the growth environment will be further enlarged in 2011, the internal differences in emerging markets. Therefore, the internal emerging market economies will further expand the differences, and emerging markets and developed markets of the regional differences may be less than expected. In 2011, the global background of loose monetary policy would suffer from higher inflation and increased pressure on emerging markets, but it will help generate growth in developed markets. In addition, restructuring of large tone, the inherent instability of emerging markets, will bring its growth is relatively greater uncertainty, in 2007 so far, the risk has been the core of developed markets, but the risk pattern in 2011 is likely to occur The eastward shift of the new trend.

Rethinking the consensus could be many, and then think about the content and conclusions may not be important. Really important is, look to 2011, the global economy and changes in international financial markets may become more severe, in determining investment strategies based on a consensus before the leave a little more skeptical, more backward thinking would be useful.

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