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The following article was published in our article directory on December 27, 2010.
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U.S. Stimulus Package Not Lead to Sustained Growth

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Obama has just passed a massive tax bill. The background of the passage is that the U.S. has a huge budget deficit, while the national debt has risen to "World War II," the highest level since. Not long ago, the Fed once again stresses that the second round of the quantitative easing policy in the end. The intention is very clear: as long as unemployment is high, inflation is low, it will continue the quantitative easing policy.

Why can not U.S. policy to stimulate lasting growth.

Stimulate the U.S. economy is not that his supporters say. Obama implementation of the new tax cuts, its real intention is to contribute to his re-election in 2012.

This year's mid-term elections showed that the unemployment rate decreased significantly unless the United States, or, when he was running for re-election will fail.

Inflation by the Fed's intention is to solve the U.S. debt problem.

U.S. household sector leverage measures need to be cut in half to make it back to normal. If the U.S. household sector to increase savings, long-term weakness in the U.S. economy, fiscal revenue will continue in the doldrums, the government deficit will be out of control. U.S. may fall into a vicious circle. If the Fed to reduce inflation and leveraged through the U.S. economy is able to escape this fate.

Inflation is good for the United States, as financial assets held by foreign creditors the equivalent of nearly 100% of U.S. GDP. For foreign creditors is the opposite. As a large holder of U.S. debt, China will suffer more serious losses. In fact, if the value of evaporation of foreign exchange reserves, China will become very fragile, unless the structural issues are resolved.

Whatever one thinks of American policy intent and effectiveness of these policies in 2011 to solve the inflation problem in China create a good environment, without having to worry about slower growth.

In 2010, China's nominal GDP is likely to reach 6 trillion. If the next 10 years the rate of 5% per year increase, that increase in the previous 10 years to keep half of 2020, China's nominal GDP will reach 15.6 trillion U.S. dollars, is comparable to the current U.S. GDP. Steady growth, rather than take risks to maximize the growth value, in line with China's best interest now.

Some analysts believe that developing countries must be extremely dangerous and unbalanced growth, can only get rid of poverty. I agree with this view. For most developing countries, they need to improve the manufacturing infrastructure and strong as possible terms of input power. The traditional view of investment efficiency is not applicable to developing countries. However, China has been growing by leaps and bounds. If China "Steady it" can in the foreseeable future among the ranks of developed countries.

However, China now is not the time to take risks to maintain growth. For China, even if an increase of 5% is enough. Between the growth and stability, China would rather focus on the conservative.

Large-scale financial crisis is not inadvertently lead to small mistakes and often take longer due to the policy of the economic cycle, but want to avoid the necessary structural reforms.

The fundamental problem is that the developed countries, "World War II," established after the social cost can not be sustained in the era of globalization, because globalization driving down their labor income, making the welfare of society to support the revenue is thus reduced. Greenspan to ease the liquidity bubble policy, the household sector by inducing an increase in debt, to maintain the existing lifestyle, which will cover the potential structural problems for a decade. European sovereign debt crisis triggered by the same forces.

The United States is relying on government bond issues to address the financial consequences of the crisis. Some European countries also have to do this a while. Of course, the Fed can monetize government debt that the United States do not have to beg for future external assistance to deal with its public debt. But such a large scale by printing money, the overall value of the dollar is likely to lead to the collapse of the step followed the 1998 Russian ruble, thus creating hyperinflation.

Although the elimination of hyperinflation benefit U.S. foreign debt, the dollar will never lose its status as a reserve currency. So to solve the problem for the United States may not benefit.

Developing economies are facing the problem of inflation and asset bubbles. As multinational companies want to use developed and developing countries to arbitrage between the cost difference, globalization has brought an unprecedented amount of capital in developing countries. In addition, low interest rates also led to the former the latter hot money inflows. Large and small developing countries, inflation is inevitable.

Asset bubble developing more severe problems. Globalization has brought prosperity for them, but not by the average share of its population.

Those in developing countries, developed countries still keep doing the work of the people, to enjoy the wages of developed countries. Competition between those in developing countries, can only take the third world wages. The former than the low cost of living counterparts in developed countries, it is a large savings to buy the assets. This led to asset price inflation. Governments have been attracted to it as a simple source of income. Therefore, they make the bigger bubble blowing.

Inflation and the bubble has not destabilizing the developing world, because Shangqie weak dollar, and the influx of hot money to maintain its currency. Historically, once the dollar rebounded and began to appreciate, inflation will become a developing crisis. But even without the currency crisis, inflation can also be a crisis. It will erode the purchasing power of the underlying population. Will lead to social unrest and political crisis.

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