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The following article was published in our article directory on December 24, 2010.
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United States Currency Future Policy is Key variables

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

2011, the RMB exchange rate movements, in general, showed stronger trend. The main factors affect the RMB exchange rate, is America's future monetary policy.

Overall, the RMB exchange rate will continue to strengthen next year, should be higher than 3% this year, appreciation, and volatility of less than 10% are possible.

The second half of this year's economic situation, since the pressure of rising prices, even if the yuan's nominal exchange rate to remain intact, the RMB's real exchange rate is still an upward trend. He pointed out that next year the trend of RMB real exchange rate depends on two key factors: First, next year's inflation. If the annual CPI in 2011 can be controlled within 4%, the overall fluctuation is not; the second is dependent on the U.S. dollar trend. In addition, a global economic recovery next year.

Next year the report of the United States against the RMB exchange rate will have a lot of pressure not less than 2011 this year. China should prepare for plans in advance.

Next year, the key factors affect the RMB exchange rate, or the U.S. monetary policy. In addition, China should adhere to the economic needs of transformation, balanced development, the principles of both exports and imports to address exchange rate issues.

The United States for the RMB exchange rate, now more out of political considerations. The United States next year will still make the RMB exchange rate, but does not introduce substantial measures, it will not so concerned as this year.

Difficult to shake the dominance of U.S. dollar

The global financial crisis exposed a deep current international monetary system is unreasonable. View from the occurrence and spread of the crisis, the crisis occurs first in the United States, but quickly passed to other countries. Its root is that there is a dollar-dominated international monetary system transfer channels. Structure of international reserves from the point of view, the major reserve currency issuing countries, namely the U.S., without any constraints. U.S. dollar is unlikely to change short-term oriented. Therefore, the future direction of the settlement, reserve system should be diversified.

The core of the current international monetary system is the U.S. dollar, the dollar's fluctuations will cause fluctuations in global currency markets. Therefore, the current recovery in the global economy is to stabilize the dollar trends. U.S. dollar steady, the global economic recovery and stability; dollar fluctuations will cause panic in the international market, including foreign exchange, equity markets.

There is no alternative to a currency U.S. dollar, short-term U.S. dominance is difficult to shake. Currently the world's most urgent problems is the responsibility of leading the national currency, that is, to U.S. monetary policy on global responsibility, the United States to have an international responsibility to maintain the dominant currency in the currency stable. Crisis cycle, that is, the international monetary system, the leading money problems.

America's current economic recovery, the main problem is high unemployment, high debt, insufficient consumption and need of deleveraging. Therefore, the crisis will shift the United States strong, trying to shift debt to other countries, because the United States, many creditors are sovereign wealth funds. Inflation in the United States hoping to dilute the debt, the corresponding depreciation of the dollar, its debt has shrunk. She pointed out that the QE2 has led to the U.S. dollar, is awash with liquidity, but also a considerable amount of liquidity flowing into emerging markets. Therefore, the future world will bring long-term problems facing the U.S. asset bubble and inflation.

QE3 outstanding

Exchange rate is only "post-crisis era" appearance, causes or international competition. The first half of 2011, the global money markets, will in the observation phase, the factors that influence whether the introduction of QE3 mainly two aspects: on the one hand, if the United States on the QE2's assessment is true that the United States next year's economic growth, consumer-driven, unemployment, etc. has improved; the other hand, if the expected U.S. inflation next year, the QE3 also less likely introduced.

The United States is still in deflation, so have an excuse to quantitative easing. To the present case, does not rule out the possibility of the United States continue to introduce QE3. He pointed out that the continued introduction of QE3, depending on the country's economic future U.S. and world response to the judge. "QE3 not just the United States, but to the world of quantitative easing."

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