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The following article was published in our article directory on December 23, 2010.
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International Base Metals Market Appear Hoarding Phenomenon

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Recently the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc and other base metals stocks were more than half of "mysterious" one dealer holds. A similar phenomenon also exists in the hoarding of basic metals futures market. Analysts believe that the absence of state supervision in the case of Britain, the hoarding phenomenon will lead to capital flows, to promote the unexplained rise in commodity prices, the fundamentals do not support in case of rising prices and hoarding by the sell-off will make the International oil prices fell sharply in 2008 the case of reproduction.

Monitor the London Metal Exchange copper warehouse, 90% or more of the copper stocks held by an unnamed value of about 30 billion U.S. dollars. 21, L ME three-month copper prices rose $ 191, or up to 2%, intraday record $ 9,392 / ton high.

Other base metals also appeared in a similar situation. The exchange of up to 90% of the aluminum stocks also held by a single trader. Nickel, zinc and aluminum warehouse, owned by a single dealer inventory ratio from 50% to 80%. 40-50% tin stocks also held a single buyer.

Not only in the spot market, the international futures market also appeared a large number of base metals futures contracts bought the mysterious buyer. With his long-term tracking of lead as an example LM E, 7 December, the exchange holding long positions of lead more than 40% of the buyers there are two independent, but did not appear before such a high proportion of independent buyers . Frequency of international metal market is hoarding phenomenon is global excess liquidity in the Western and Japanese bond yields rose and the case of investment banks and other financial institutions that the metal is able to maintain and increase value-added investment.

Hoarding phenomenon will change the market expectations, and guide capital flows, commodity prices push up of unknown causes, thereby affecting the people to judge the real economy, the future may even lead to financial instability.

An international investment bank more than the sound of singing (Goldman Sachs in June 2008 Shihai judge said oil prices would then 200 dollars a barrel), July 11, 2008, New York crude oil futures price of $ 147.27 a barrel on the touch high oil prices. However, international oil prices slumped in the second half to turn around, December 19, 2008, the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for January delivery in futures prices closed at $ 33.87 a barrel. Guan Qingyou said: "Behind the ups and downs in oil prices, international investment banks play an important role. Their large holdings of oil futures in advance, the expected increase in economic prospects, influence people's judgments on the real economy, international oil prices continue to sing, then in the medium and small investors still expect oil prices to rise further when it quietly sell their positions, causing the price of diving. "

A similar phenomenon is also likely to be staged in the metals markets. JP Morgan Chase is a huge number of U.S. holdings of silver futures positions. Two months ago, the Bank and HSBC Holdings have been investors sued, accused of plotting to drag down the price of silver. JP Morgan silver futures positions the future, "significantly reduced."

While the international investment banks began to sing next year, commodity prices, but from the fundamentals of view, many commodity prices lower the possibility still exists. An important indicator of the global economy --- Baltic Dry Index recent serious decline in December 20 is also low in more than four months, indicating that the recovery of the real economy is still at risk. "Need to guard against is that investment banks and other institutions predict economic trends are strong, they tend to display prices in a variety of leading indicators is about to throw down position before." Guan Qingyou said.

While JP Morgan Chase and other parties to the mystery buyer hoarding more than a question, but the London Metal Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, the country --- United Kingdom and the United States is not relevant regulatory rules.

However, recent changes in the metal market has attracted the concern of regulators. University of Maryland law professor and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission head of trading and markets, said Michael Greenberg, JP Morgan Chase because the behavior is too unusual, may have been further investigation, even though C FT C currently no positions limit, the executive director may investigate the matter, determine whether there is manipulation.

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