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The following article was published in our article directory on December 21, 2010.
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Debt Risk Aggrandizement Economic Risks

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Risk and sovereign debt of developed countries GDP growth is also closely related to two-way. On the one hand, sovereign debt risk and government financing costs will inevitably force these countries to increase the intensity of financial constraints, and thus a negative impact on GDP growth; the other hand, if the GDP growth lower than expected, government deficit will worsen directly increase the risk of sovereign debt. Some European countries and Japan, GDP growth rate of the sustainability of government finances have a significant impact. Therefore, the worst result is that some countries might fall into the second recession and worsening financial situation and meaning.

According to the United Nations early December release of "2011 World Economic Situation and Prospects", the developed countries the average share of GDP, the deficit before the crisis in 2007 soared to about 1% to 9% in 2009. Since 2010, the U.S. financial system to reduce the decline in aid. But the sovereign debt of developed countries is still significant increase in average debt levels and expected rate of GDP in 2011 will exceed 100%. This will be the impact of world economic and financial stability, one of the main risks.

In Europe, except Greece, Ireland and other countries receiving assistance, the major euro-zone countries such as Germany began to take austerity measures. Continue to take the United States in 2011, has little room for fiscal stimulus.

Fiscal policy is limited, the developed countries only by loose monetary policy to continue to support economic recovery. However, these countries interest rates have been reduced to zero, or close to zero. Therefore, they can only rely on the almost "quantitative easing" measures, that is, the bond market by the central bank to buy from the commercial banks on long-term government bonds, corporate bonds and even to increase liquidity.

However, the quantitative easing policy is the most direct impact on the market long-term interest rates, thereby reducing business investment and consumer credit credit costs, stimulate demand and promote the role of employment is clearly indirect.

The actual situation shows that the quantitative easing policy not ideal, a lot of liquidity in corporate hands of stagnation, not into productive forces. U.S. Federal Reserve on Dec. 9 that the U.S. non-financial corporate cash as of the end of September was 1.93 trillion U.S. dollars, higher than the end of June when the 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for 7.4% of total assets for the highest level since 1959. Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sloek said, "companies are observing the situation in the private sector that the current economic environment is not suitable for expanding the scale."

By the "quantitative easing" policy, a direct impact on the dollar and euro severe shock, in turn affect the exchange rates of emerging economies, coupled with foreign capital flows to emerging economies, driven by emerging economies, currency appreciation pressures on the rise. Such as the Brazilian real appreciation of the real exchange rate of 20% in 2010.

United Nations Economic and Social Affairs believes that exchange rate fluctuations to the investment and trade has brought great uncertainty is not conducive to economic recovery. Emerging economies, significant appreciation of the currency is more detrimental to their short-term macroeconomic and financial stability. If the country wants to rely on "competitive" currency devaluations to boost their economic growth will be very dangerous, the result is likely to be a new round of global economy into recession.

Economic Cycle Research Institute Managing Director Lakshman • A Chu Tan says that, despite the U.S. economic recovery is slow, but is likely to achieve the economic "soft landing", not the second bottom. He believes that when the recovery of liquidity the Fed is the real risk. Oppenheimer Fund Managing Director Lishan Quan also said the Fed printing money is easy, but how to recycle liquidity from the market will become a huge problem.

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