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The following article was published in our article directory on December 21, 2010.
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China Liquidity Source Problem Become Clear

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Did all smoke and mirrors, obscure domestic liquidity problems recently finally become clear.

The central bank will add the number of base money, which is the same size of renminbi will flow into the market. So that people understand that this interpretation had expressed its "As the increase in foreign exchange, the central bank was forced to issue more base money" means. The meaning expressed by the two is the same.

Latest central bank data show that in November added to 319.6 billion yuan foreign exchange, and October is as high as 530.1 billion yuan, which is not hard to understand why in the last two months China's surge in domestic liquidity. Integrated Customs data, November's trade surplus and foreign direct investments were 22.9 billion U.S. dollars and 9.704 billion U.S. dollars, Excluding the proceeds in foreign exchange in two parts, can not explain the capital inflow of about 100 billion yuan. While this may not be 100 billion yuan is the so-called "hot money", but "hot money" is indeed in which this show since the second half of this year continued high level of hot money inflows in China, but also means that since the second half of this year the central bank continued increase in base money supply. At this point, the central bank unexpectedly in the last month three times in raising the deposit reserve ratio has also been "no surprises" basis lies.

For the future, China's short-term source of additional liquidity will still be in there, as long as the United States and Europe and other developed countries has not been out of the shadow of the crisis, as long as the United States and Europe continue to implement the policy of quantitative easing and low interest rates to stimulate or zero interest rates maintain the economic recovery in emerging market countries and prospects of the country would be a large influx of foreign liquidity pressure, China is no exception. In the short term, the pressure in the next 6 months ago has not significantly reduced.

The question now is, this approach is still being questioned. Voices of doubt that the current hedge way too single, too passive, and in a lot of liquidity into the domestic, the domestic excess liquidity problem more apparent, more difficult to effectively guide or solution, which triggered a series of problems, such as increasing inflation expectations, causing the prices of domestic resources and assets continue to upgrade the speculation, which brings difficulties to macroeconomic regulation and control.

Since the second half of the Chinese market has been super tangled hair monetary issues, the present situation, but also different understandings of the same issue and saying it.

Off the influx of foreign hot money is unlikely, as the domestic economic development, natural delivery of the new base currency is inevitable, the question remains is how the future to effectively guide the flow.

Some clear liquid is a good thing, on the "hot money" is more clear understanding but also conducive to domestic expectations clear. In this regard, I always think that the fundamental is still in idle funds to prevent excessive concentration in a particular field, should open up more channels for diversion of funds, domestic and foreign investment to expand the areas and modalities. When liquidity is too prominent in a stage show, the way to be a special diversion of funds targeted.

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