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The following article was published in our article directory on December 20, 2010.
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Germany Strong Economic Recovery Will Last Long

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

In preparing to go on before the Christmas holidays, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the European Union summit in the winter with a tough stance "ending" 2010: Support for creation of the euro long-term stability mechanism, opposing the expansion of the scale of the emergency rescue mechanism against the issue of euro bonds.

Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy before the coordination of views, in fact, the EU summit is basically in accordance with Germany and France's "established policy" carried out. That is, the EU leaders agreed in principle to amend the EU Treaty is to create long-term stability mechanism. The summit did not achieve any substantive results.

Although Merkel because it had "two opposing" in the German Parliament on the subject of fierce opposition criticism and with the Euro group president, Prime Minister Juncker of Luxembourg has an argument and caused great dissatisfaction Juncker, Angela Merkel at the moment but the full show Iron Lady of the firm side, the German government should insist on the position of the euro crisis --- Germany supports the European Central Bank's funds to enrich library, but opposing the expansion of the scale and distribution of relief mechanism joint euro bonds. The German government believes that expanding the scale and distribution of relief mechanism joint bond, one makes the so-called "problem countries" lose control financial power, the second is a responsible member countries would undermine the interests of taxpayers. This latter reason is the backing of Merkel's largest hard-line stance.

Euro crisis, Germans find themselves again and again for the "problem countries" pay the bill, while Germany continued to decline to cut spending on social welfare, which gave the public the government and even the crisis of confidence on the euro. Although the German economy this year, surging in the euro area is simply thriving, but the Merkel government's credibility is in decline. For the Merkel government, it is necessary to maintain stability of the euro, the German economy but also to maintain leadership position in Europe to cater to public opinion, the smart thing to do is the moment at least, Germany can not promise to let the taxpayers foot the bill for the euro crisis.

Three German Institute of Economic Research recently released a report on German economic growth forecasts for the next two years, while once again raised its growth forecast for Germany. Kiel Institute of World Economics, Halle Institute for Economic Research and Institute of Macroeconomics and economic prospects are that Germany's GDP to grow at 3.7% next year, 2.3% to 2.5%. Earlier this year the forecast is 3.4 to 3.5 percent or so, next year in between 1.7 to 2.0 percent. Enterprises in Germany next year, is quite optimistic about the economic situation, the German purchasing managers index rose to a new high since 2006, reaching 60.9. Kiel Institute reports that by 2012, German unemployment to fall to 2.8 million less than the reduction of nearly 50 million people this year, employment will rise to 40.9 million, reaching a record high.

Although the German economy this year and next scenery here is fine, but all economists agree that a number of obvious factors, such as the debt crisis in Europe and the euro triggered a crisis of confidence, extreme expansion of the United States and its consequent economic policy U.S. credit crisis and so on, will pose a threat to economic development in Germany. Instability in the euro area is the biggest threat. German Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Prosperity report, weak economic growth in the euro zone, Germany, if not support, fear not far from stagnant. Also difficult to imagine, the German economy can long-term immune. Extreme view that the German economy may be a recession in 2012. Some moderate views, such as Standard & Poor's report that the strong recovery in 2010, the German economy in 2011 and 2012, growth will slow down, the main driver of economic growth from exports to domestic demand and business spending and the local consumption and other factors.

But the domestic demand can compensate for the decline in exports in the short term gap, but it is still a question mark. So for the German economy after 2012, all economists are given a less than 1.5% growth forecast. German Institute of Macroeconomics and economists believe the economic boom, the German economy will be weaker after a strong recovery. Can reproduce the prosperity, or a long stagnation, or even a recession, depending on the direction of economic policy in Germany and these policies can build confidence.

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