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The following article was published in our article directory on December 20, 2010.
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Nobody Wants to Be Successor to the Euro

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

There is always a gap between expectation and reality. Seven years ago, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet took office, that time of his ambitious, full of hope that he stepped down in 2011 when the European Monetary Union can be (EMU) fight the world's most attractive place to work. Founded in 1999, initially by the 11 EU member countries outside the UK, Europe, the most developed of the four countries - Germany, France, Italy and Spain are members. The early days of high hopes for the EU is widely seen on the world stage that it will occupy a pivotal position to lead the old continent economically replay glory.

In August 2007 the credit crisis spread in Europe and other countries at the beginning, people's confidence in the euro area has not wavered. Intuitively, the common currency will be closely linked to the euro area member states, unified euro-zone monetary policy could be further from the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis. May 2008 the 10th anniversary of the birth of the euro, the EU issued a positive overall tone for the self-report, a total of 328 pages in the report, only two described the widening current account imbalances and competition within the euro zone power imbalances and other problems.

Trichet also a celebration in 2008 will be a common currency called "the most successful European Community sign, largely a symbol of the European Community." May be just in the past year and a half, the situation for very different. European politicians are now discussing the October 2011 Jean-Claude Trichet's successor after the expiration of the issue, the arms become very negative and pessimistic mood. Sharp economic downturn in 2009 exposed the EU periphery countries in the face of vulnerability to shocks, but also shows that in Germany a number of countries represented in the brutally tough new international order, you can better survival and development.

Trichet's successor will take over the pain of a long caught in the currency area. Last year, both the public discussion, or the media inside and outside Europe, "Euro" is always a "crisis" go hand in hand. Early optimism for the euro is now completely gone blind. Initial implementation of a unified currency, many European countries have cut interest rates to the same level with Germany, but the move did not effectively enhance the productivity of countries do not make preparations for the challenges of globalization, but it contributed significantly to the financial assets and consumption and real estate speculation. Market decline in 2007 due to financial assets and real estate values dropped sharply for countries miserable.

In 2011, the euro area the situation even more is not optimistic. Now there is no effective way to make the euro zone to escape. A sad fact is that in the political, economic, ideological and other factors under the action of a single monetary zone and economic differentiation within the currency imbalance is deeply embedded within. Both for the core countries still outside the euro area countries, the imbalance of funding for borrowers and lenders have caused great distress.

What is strange is that the real exchange rate within the euro zone, and asymmetry. Eight years before the introduction of the euro, the euro peripheral countries like Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Greece to maintain low interest rates. Easy credit leading to their higher than average levels of economic growth and inflation, but also to the competitiveness of the damage. Germany and other core countries, the situation is the opposite: low growth, low inflation make the economy more competitive. Germany, represented by countries with large trade surpluses, as the capital-exporting countries. These countries called for the implementation of aid to vulnerable countries, the sound has ceased. However, due to a series of checks and balances are impeded by the euro-zone, the adjustment process has been unable to implement radical changes have also failed to achieve.

First, the capital exporting countries and peripheral countries do not want to maintain the same cycle, enhance their level of inflation so that the peripheral countries to enhance their competitiveness but also they do not want to do.

Third, a substantial debt write-down is the only effective rescue mechanisms for peripheral countries in distress. Unfortunately, the euro zone countries on the periphery there is no such mechanism. European Financial Stability Committee in May of this year's 440 billion euros to implement the assistance program is a passive measure. Despite the huge amount of aid, but its essence is already deeply in debt quagmire countries to impose more debt.

Fourth, the other euro-zone members will help countries in crisis has dropped significantly. Not only is the case in Germany, the eurozone and other capital-exporting countries also do so. Most of these countries in the past two years to cut costs, and overwhelmed by the country they are not troubled to do so, this free-riding behavior can not understand the capital-exporting country.

Fifth, further strengthen the euro area is determined by Trichet and his successor's goal. This process is now stalled to some extent. Poland is willing to join the appeal is to determine an important indicator of the euro area. Many euro area countries want Poland to join the euro in the next few years, but according to the present situation, Poland for at least five years can not join the euro. This is not only political defeat euro zone also means that the euro zone's economic ability to help vulnerable countries on the question.

In such a gloomy situation, EMU countries the issue of successor Jean-Claude Trichet, will face tough choices. German Bundesbank President Axel Weber and the Italian central bank governor Mario Draghi as the representative of the large number of candidates failed to realize that the world monetary system really is entering a new and important phase. For various reasons, Weber and Mario Draghi as the European Central Bank President on the attitude of the post is not very positive. Looking for a small country as the representative of the post may be a good choice, the ECB's first president Duisenberg, had been president of the Central Bank of the Netherlands.

Why is Drudge, etc., as Weber and representatives from the major powers may not be Jean-Claude Trichet took over the post? There are many reasons, including tough anti-inflationary policy of Weber and the Drudge Goldman Sachs prior to the origin, but the real reason may be a bit flat: no monetary policy-makers are willing to fall apart as they were during the administration of the history of the euro area mind.

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