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The following article was published in our article directory on December 14, 2010.
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Emerging Economy And Developed Economy Very Different Price Trends

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Financial crisis, emerging economies around the world take the lead in recovery. According to the International Monetary Fund forecast annual growth of emerging economies to reach 7.1% in 2010, setting a new high since the financial crisis. Directly reflects the speed of economic recovery in consumption, investment and production activities, the high level of activity, which to some extent, pushed up the market among emerging economies, prices of primary products, in addition, other factors affected by disasters, agricultural products and food prices, is Another important reason for price increases caused. For example, China in November food prices rose by 11.7%; Brazil November food prices are up 2.22%, the highest level in 8 years.

By comparison, the developed economies, the IMF also forecast 2010 growth of developed economies, predicted rate of only 2.7%. Slow economic growth means that consumption, investment, production and other economic activities is not active, the demand for raw materials and other primary products also weak. In addition, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries high unemployment rate also inhibit consumer demand for products, which also inhibited the rise in prices.

Come to talk about economic policy. And compared the economic situation, emerging economies and developed economies, the implementation of different economic policies, also contributed to the different conditions between the two important reasons for the price.

First, emerging economies, after the recovery Shitoumingxian, has begun to gradually withdraw in response to the crisis taken by expansionary fiscal policy, for instance, the Politburo meeting held not long ago proposed that next year China will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy, the , will be "moderately easy" monetary policy adjustments as a "prudent" monetary policy. For another example, a reporter in India, as just mentioned, India's central bank this year has 6 consecutive rate hikes. Brazil's central bank has accumulated this year to raise interest rates 200 basis points. These are the embodiment of tightening monetary policy.

On a country's economy, the tightening of monetary policy should have been inflation, but in the current economic situation, emerging economies, tightening policy will attract more outside money into these funds both optimistic about emerging economies investment in physical capital's future economic prospects, but also including emerging economies, currencies gamble speculative capital. The mobility of a large number of emerging economies is pushing up the price of important reasons.

So, these capital come from? Their source is the developed economies, the financial crisis, the developed economies continue to maintain low interest rates at the same time, through the purchase of bonds and other "quantitative easing" policy, to a lot of liquidity into the financial system. Currently, the United States and Japan regard the quantitative easing policy to stimulate economic growth as a normalization, the long-term oriented policy instruments, the European Central Bank also said it would buy back as necessary to members of bonds. So regardless of market demand and the practice of blindly printing money to inject a lot of useless market liquidity, the reason that useless, because the internal current in the advanced economies, is not the actual lack of funds, but confidence. As Duke University Professor Cam Harvey said, the United States are not enthusiastic about business investment is not a lack of funds, but lack of confidence in the future.

In such circumstances, a lot of useless money than in developed economies must seek for investment, and their final destination only in emerging economies. Statistics verify this judge, Morgan Stanley reported that the net inflow of funds recently the phenomenon of emerging market countries has been maintained for more than half a year, in October reached 200 billion U.S. dollars, since the October 2007 record high since the second .

In fact, the current situation for many emerging economies into a difficult choice "dilemma" dilemma - on the one hand, in times of crisis for the gradual withdrawal of unconventional economic stimulus policies, and respond to the pressure of the external imported inflation, emerging economies need to tightening of monetary policy. China, India, Brazil and other countries have initiatives to raise interest rates prove this.

On the other hand, interest rates and currency appreciation will hot money inflows have increased the pressure, which is the emerging economies have to face. 10, Central Bank of China announced that the sixth year raised the deposit reserve ratio, rather than the market had widely expected interest rate increase, it is this "dilemma" of visual expression. Because raising the deposit reserve ratio is a direct effect of the freezing of bank capital for lending, but will not push the outside world for the expected appreciation of the renminbi.

So, what to do next dilemma, China, for example, the focus should be on balancing the internal economic structure. On the one hand to strengthen the economy of endogenous motivation, layman's terms is to increase the social and private investment, expansion of domestic consumption. This can ensure stable economic growth while reducing investment in government-led economic stimulus, economic stimulus our country a smooth exit. On the other hand, in order to curb hot money and speculative capital inflows, China could consider gradually relax control on capital outflow, strengthen financial institutions and residents to encourage foreign investment, and actively promote the internationalization of the RMB.

The world, emerging economies need to respond to the task of inflation in developed economies, including countries around the world, including strengthening policy coordination. Developed economies need to recognize that, simply put monetary approach to the market does not help its economic recovery, and will also increase the global economic uncertainties. Only take practical measures to restore investor confidence and improve the financial regulatory system, reduce the deficit scale, to promote sustainable economic growth. In short, the crisis, countries around the world must take a responsible attitude and practices in order to help each other out the storm.

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