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The following article was published in our article directory on December 14, 2010.
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Booming Emerging Economies and Euro Close to Collapse

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Improved world economic situation this year is astonishing. Global economic output growth may be close to 5%, much higher than expected growth trends, the forecast growth rate is also much faster than a year ago. Most of the financial markets frightened risk does not appear. China's economy has not suffered a hard landing. Medium-term U.S. economic slowdown did not form a double-dip recession. But the euro-zone economies, the plight of some small but beginning to emerge. However, to the aging European continent, the euro zone to maintain this growth has been considered a decent, thanks to Germany - in 2010 the fastest growing developed countries.

Now the problem is that the economic situation in 2011, the trend will continue. Many people hold a positive attitude. Most countries, consumer and business confidence index is still rising; global manufacturing to accelerate development; financial market vitality. Morgan Stanley Capital International index since early July has been increased by 20%. Nowadays, investors are not known stories - a number of small countries such as the euro zone bond yields sharply higher, another example, the rise of inflation in China - can be easily treated.

Earlier this year, investors are too pessimistic outlook. But now, their confidence seems to have appeared before. In short, the world economy, the trend in 2011 depends largely on three areas: large emerging economies, the euro area and the United States (although the Japanese still heavyweight countries, but it is likely too small to create the myth.)

However, the three regions are moving in different directions, different prospects for economic growth, conflicting policy options. Some differences are inevitable. India and the U.S. economy is totally different. But the difference in the continued emergence of new, particularly in developed countries, which means that they will have more friction between.

Booming emerging economies

First look for the greatest contribution to global economic growth this year, emerging economies power. Shenzhen, China to Brazil from Sao Paulo, the economic growth momentum in emerging countries remains the same, the backup capacity also have been open enough. As long as there is demand, and foreign capital are flowing into. The original asset bubble was only worried about the economy overheating has become replaced by panic. China is an example of a country, but far more than China. Brazil's inflation has soared to more than 5%, and 11 months of imports rose by 44%.

Cheap money is often the main reason for inflation. Despite the global recession in 2009 is still remembered, but because of inhibition of currency appreciation in some countries to make monetary conditions remain very relaxed. Inflation and currency appreciation of the coexistence of inhibition is not sustainable. To curb rising prices, most emerging economies have to tighten policy. If done too far, economic growth will dip; irrelevant if done, it will lead to higher inflation, and then had to adopt tighter monetary policy. However, emerging economies could impact on the macroeconomy are rapidly increasing.

Near collapse of the euro area

The euro area is another piece of hot potato, will the financial markets and macroeconomic impact. Short term, just because of cuts in government spending, its growth rate will slow down. In some major countries, especially Germany, fiscal consolidation is voluntary, even asking for it. Ireland, Portugal and Greece, have no choice, the outlook bleak. Practical experience shows that countries in monetary union is unlikely to cut wage and price alone to rapidly improve their competitiveness. Worse, the euro zone caused by the bankruptcy of financial impact - will spread to the world - even more clear. This is not only within the euro zone too many government debt, and the need to re-examine the whole European banking system. Almost certainly in Europe in 2011 will face another bottomless crisis.

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