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The following article was published in our article directory on December 14, 2010.
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Germany Economy High Growth Behind Worry

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Germany's economic development this year, singing all the way to triumph, the Government is expected 3.4% annual economic growth rate, which is a negative growth of 4.7% in 2009, in stark contrast. Economic experts warned here, optimistic economic situation in the future should pay attention to risk prevention, the economy has maintained sustained and steady growth.

According to statistics released by the German Federal Statistical Office report, the first three quarters of this year the German economy has to grow, as amended, in the first quarter increased 0.6%, 2.3% in the second quarter, third quarter growth of 0.7 %. Germany's Rhine - Westphalia Institute for Economic Research believes that even the fourth quarter of Germany's economic growth accelerated again.

Experts believe that the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Germany, already have broad-based economic recovery and stimulate economic growth not only from domestic but also from abroad. Increase in private consumption and government spending, and strong exports are contributing to economic growth. In addition, business equipment, automobile manufacturing investment has also increased.

German Economy Minister: "Germany now has been export-led economic growth more towards domestic demand and promote." Imports and exports are estimated to be in Germany this year, an increase of 14% and 15%, domestic demand grew by 2.4% including personal consumption rose 0.1%, government spending grew by 2.4%. In addition, the German unemployment rate fell to 7% in November, the number of unemployed for the first time in two years less than 300 million. The Government also expects prices remained stable, the inflation rate estimated at 1.1%.

This year Germany has been able to quickly resolve the economic crisis last year have serious consequences for economic V-reversal, mainly due to the following aspects: Last year the government introduced large-scale economic stimulus plan on the economic stability is still to play an active role; Euro interest rates is always leading in the history of the minimum level of 1%, which will help German exports; German companies over the years so that they can adjust the globalization of China and India's rapid economic growth to respond rapidly and benefit from. In addition, the German short-time work to implement measures to prevent the workers during the economic crisis too much too quickly dismissed, and proved that flexible forms of employment are correct.

Earlier this year, the German government expects annual economic growth rate of only 1.4%, while real economic growth far exceeded the government expected. However, economic experts here warned that Germany still hidden behind the economic prosperity, a number of risks and uncertainties that could slow the pace of economic recovery.

First of all, Germany has not yet completely overcome the financial crisis triggered by the economic recession. Germany's economy in 2009 by the world economic crisis plunged 4.7%, to the worst recession since World War II. While this year's economic upturn, but this growth is based on the reversal of economic decline. Commerzbank chief economist said: "As of now, only cover the loss of the German economy more than 60%." He expects the German economy until end of next year is expected to reach crisis levels.

Second, some countries, monetary policy may lead to speculators pushing up world prices of raw materials again, and some ability to maintain rapid growth in emerging markets, the United States is restricting consumption of high unemployment, but also will affect the German economy.

In addition, the debt crisis in Europe quite a lot. Although it has little effect on the real economy in Germany, but the implementation of EU financial constraints forced the current situation is bound to inhibit the economic boom in Europe. European Central Bank has always been to maintain low interest rates, may also have excessive credit risk. Banking experts believe that the current German private and corporate borrowing costs low, resulting in significantly rising real estate prices.

German government economic stimulus plan may quit next year, and strict financial budget. The government expects economic growth in Germany in 2011 to 1.8%. German Council of Economic Advisers believes that this year's strong economic rebound in the next few years the German economy is expected to enter the stable growth period, this year, next year the German economy will grow by 3.7% to 2.2%.

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