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The following article was published in our article directory on December 13, 2010.
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The Next Decade Will Entered the Era of Inflation

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

The second round of the quantitative easing policy has not yet fully implemented, the third round has been brewing. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said a U.S. media, the Fed is willing to purchase more than 600 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds. Bernanke stressed that the implementation of more liberal policies because of the current low inflation and high unemployment. If these targets until 2011, did not improve, we should see even the fifth round of the fourth round of the quantitative easing policy.

Previously, the Fed's policy of quantitative easing will be the first increase in inflation in emerging economies, and then by commodity in international trade, transfer back to the United States. Quantitative easing and the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation for a long period between the time lag, so when realized inflation, the Fed, want to stop it will be too late. Once the formation of inflation will be subdued through the years. The second of this century and the 20th century, 10 years 70 years will be strikingly similar.

If you make a determined effort, emerging countries can prevent inflation. Need to do is to appreciate its currency against the dollar 50%, and the rate to 10%. Gradual depreciation of the exchange rate dynamic balance to offset higher interest rates relative to the U.S.. However, they can not implement such a tight monetary policy. Instead, the practice is that they will gradually raise interest rates, negative real interest rates temporarily matter. They will not be substantial appreciation of the currency. This policy led to high inflation long-term dynamic equilibrium is unchanged.

Emerging countries are generally the practice to end the financial crisis because of negative real interest rates will encourage the market by lending to speculation. However, if the emerging countries to take anti-speculation policy, negative real interest rates will not necessarily lead to financial crisis. There are signs that they are doing, although not done enough. Emerging economies is the lesson remains to be seen.

Precursor to the financial crisis is leverage and asset price inflation and current account deficit widened. Several emerging in major countries, Brazil and India, the risk of recurrence is relatively large. Because of their current situation is not very good, can not afford the negative real interest rates. If we do not control credit expansion, when the United States because inflation or interest rates increase the economic recovery, Brazil and India is likely to experience Southeast Asia in 1997-style financial crisis.

China and Russia has a huge balance of payments surplus and high foreign exchange reserves. When the United States to tighten monetary policy, they will not be significant external influence. However, if the domestic asset prices out of control - mainly real estate, China and Russia may be an internal shock. In order to control their own destiny, they must strictly control the speculation in 2011.

United States continues to double from the financial and monetary aspects of demand stimulus. Obama and the Republican government has reached an agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts two years, in exchange for increased unemployment benefits and reduce the wage tax. Quantitative easing by the Fed has helped the dollar to the U.S. economy, despite the euro area is suffering from the debt crisis. 2011, U.S. GDP growth could also line, such as 2.5% to 3%.

However, the improvement of the unemployment situation in the United States is not satisfactory. In a globalized world, the supply from around the world, and the demand side is still limited to the local. In layman terms, this means that the loss will be more demand stimulus, that is, it will lead to a growing trade deficit.

Many American economists will want to put through the depreciation of the dollar to stimulate exports. This move can not, as of ridiculous that they want. Before conducting multinational export of capital, will take into account long-term factors. If a nation is always artificially low exchange rates, multinational companies is difficult in this country for long-term fixed investment. If they do not increase capital spending in the United States, the U.S. employment situation will not improve anytime soon.

Unemployment is not sensitive to the stimulation, would make the United States extended stimulation. Period, the inflation accumulated. It is reflected in the commodity markets, especially oil. Therefore, the third round of quantitative easing on the discussion, he went to crude oil price per barrel will rise to more than 90 dollars, which is not surprising. Next came the fourth round and fifth round when the news of quantitative easing, oil prices may continue to record high - let alone 200 dollars a barrel.

In a recent meeting attended, someone asked me if I do not believe the effect of stimulating demand, will give the United States provide any suggestions. I think that in a globalized market, countries should show more like a company, it is necessary to attach importance to demand attention but also supply. Half of the trade deficit from U.S. energy imports. The United States can become energy self-sufficient country. U.S. natural gas prices cheaper than anywhere else. They should have a policy to encourage the use of natural gas. U.S. offshore oil potential is also large. Just because an accident on the British oil exploration activities offshore limit, which is very ridiculous. Not because the kitchen fire, put it to off. U.S. agriculture has a huge advantage. Americans should be more to become farmers. This encourages the supply-side initiatives to solve the U.S. trade balance.

The blind obstinacy of demand management will make the U.S. economy took a wrong path. Because the United States continues to occupy one-fifth of the global economy and the dollar is the currency of international trade, it's wrong policy screw up the whole world. No country can change the direction of U.S. policy change. We could only watch the next ten years into the era of inflation.

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