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The following article was published in our article directory on December 9, 2010.
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Global Economic Recovery Will Be Very Limited

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Prediction is a risky thing, more difficult to forecast the economic situation, because too many uncertain factors, which makes the accurate prediction of the prophet into the spotlight.

Economic downturn is perceived in the world everyone should be said that 30 years from the last century, the largest since the economic contraction. From global trade, industry and unemployment growth data, occurred in 1975, 1982 and 1991, the three depression are not so much this time. Intensity is very large economic downturn will lead to faster rebound. This is what we forecast a way of economic development, like a rubber band, if you pulled the faster, the faster it will rebound. Normal should be a V-bounce, but people do not see this rally, today's economic trends are very weak, so the crisis is terrible. For the U.S. economy still has a negative impact on Japan's economy is the same. Developed countries, developing economies are still facing a very weak economic recovery. So is the lingering financial crisis, in the process of global economic rebound rebound very limited extent, this crisis will continue, the coverage will be broader. In such factors, is the world's great problems.

Before the subprime crisis in the 5-year, global economic growth rate of almost 5%, only 3.5% in the next few years, economic growth, that is slower than before the subprime mortgage crisis, about one-third.

On the demand side, consumers do not have a country more important to consumers than the United States in 2009, about 45% of consumers from the U.S., they contribute 10 trillion, while China and India contributed only 2 additive. 5 trillion. European sovereign debt crisis also difficult to expect the next few years a great improvement in the European economy. Although the Chinese economy is very optimistic, but China and India, consumption is very small, can not make up for lack of consumption in Europe and the United States. Europe and the U.S. add up to about 18 trillion of consumer, China and India, 7.5 times the total consumption. This reality of the world economic recovery is a great challenge, a challenge for China.

U.S. personal consumption expenditure Percentage of total U.S. GDP in the 20th century, almost a quarter of the time to 66% in 2000 and suddenly began to rise, its causes, effects of income and wealth from the point of view, from the very weak or weak support. U.S. consumption growth is driven by both credit and real estate bubbles to drive, and now the two large bubbles have burst. U.S. consumption-GDP ratio from 70% back to the 60% level, which returned to the Americans to enter these levels before the bubble. Federal Reserve Chairman trying to change this situation, but the problem than the U.S. Federal Reserve smart consumers, consumers have too much debt, they want to repay their debts, but the Fed does not require consumers to do so because they have given the first two of the quantitative easing policy.

The global economy from the supply side, Asia is a very fragile structure, exports and consumption are true. In 1997, when the Asian financial crisis of 1998, exports accounted for 35% of Asian GDP. In the next 10 years, this share reached 45%, the edge of the subprime crisis. Developing Asia has become more dependent on external demand, this level is more serious than the financial crisis. Therefore, once a crisis, Asian economies have all been hit, are facing recession or slowdown, China is a recession.

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