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The following article was published in our article directory on December 7, 2010.
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American Quantitative Easing to Russia Had Little Effect

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

The Fed launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy a negative impact on the global economy, has been widespread opposition around the world. At present, because the policy limited impact on the real economy in Russia and Russia against the relatively mild tone.

Overall, the United States, the impact of quantitative easing is not Russia, mainly in the following areas.

Russia's foreign trade more good than harm

This is mainly to energy and raw materials, Russia's main export commodities. Statistics show the first three quarters, only two types of oil and natural gas commodity exports to Russia accounted for 44% of total exports. Arbat Capital Management chairman Popovich pointed out that the share of Russian exports of raw materials in the Brezhnev period of about 50%, 65% 1998 -70%, 75% now.

Quantitative easing policy has resulted in the U.S. dollar, international market, raw materials, energy and bulk commodity prices, Russia's exports of raw materials will benefit. Russian economist, said Vladimir Tikhomirov, the weak dollar led to Russia's main export commodity prices, Russia's export earnings will increase, which in the short term help to solve Russia's budget deficit.

Short-term "hot money" inflows is not obvious

Russian presidential aide Dvorak Marko Popovich said recently that the short term, the U.S. policy of quantitative easing capital inflows may lead to some of the Russian market, it is expected that inflows will not be much; the long term, whether the funds into the Russian market, mainly depends on the Russian government's own behavior, not on the Fed.

Medium to long term, Russia is not the main problem facing capital inflows, but the capital outflow. This is different from other emerging countries. Russia Central Bank released Nov. 16 report, the first three quarters of this year Russia and 16 billion U.S. dollars net capital outflow, estimated annual net capital outflow reached 220 billion U.S. dollars, which greatly exceeded the forecast of 8.7 billion early next year.

Going against the ruble exchange rate fell

Ruble against the U.S. dollar the recent trend unusual. After the American introduction of quantitative easing policy, emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar generally rose, while the ruble-dollar exchange rate shock is all the way down, from 11 to 30.77 rubles in early fall early December for a dollar for a dollar of 31.45 rubles, the monthly depreciation rate more than 2%, which is contrary to all the analysts had expected, and even the Russian central bank this is unexpected, had in November to sell the dollar in mid-shot to relieve the ruble's fall. This approach with other central banks in emerging market countries curb the practice of currency appreciation on the contrary.

Fueling inflation

High temperature and drought this summer led to three quarters of Russia's agricultural prices rose, pushing up inflation. The end of October consumer price level has increased 6.8% over the beginning. Early November the U.S. introduction of quantitative easing of international commodity prices, has begun to transfer to the Russian domestic. Russia recently started a variety of grades of gasoline prices. Can be said that Russia had quantitative easing policy has worsened the inflation contributed to the severity.

Russian financial and investment analysis firm Investcafe analyst Anton Safonov said that if next year the United States to actively implement the policy of quantitative easing, the central bank will have to intervene Russian ruble exchange rate, throwing dollars of hot money hedge ruble, which will further fuel inflation. The level of inflation next year will reach 7% -8%, 6% more than the Crown of the predictive value of -7%.

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