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The following article was published in our article directory on December 6, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: xia zihui
In 2010, the international financial crisis, global economic recovery after the road is not smooth. Focus on exchange rate issues, disputes between countries, friction. For a time, the "currency war" much talk, during which also bear a greater exchange rate appreciation pressures.
Calm observation, the RMB exchange rate issue behind, in fact, the impact of hot money hidden, asset bubbles and inflation expectations, trade protectionism, and many other problems plagued the Chinese economy. China should do?
Shifted outward pressure of some developed countries
Early November, the Fed has thrown 6,000 billion total of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy. Just out of the policy, the dollar fell, the market worried about excess global liquidity conditions further. In fact, this year in September, October between the U.S. dollar continuing to slide, had been involved in the multi-currency appreciation whirlpool.
The face of the dollar, the Japanese government intervention in the exchange rate through devaluation of the national currency. To alleviate the economic overheating, inflation and asset bubbles pressure, Brazil, India, Korea and other emerging economies, and Canada, Sweden and some other developed economies, central banks raise interest rates to counter it.
"The next few years, the challenge will be long! Excess liquidity flooding toward the emerging markets including China and developing countries, resulting in exchange rate volatility and trade friction and heat." BOC International Holdings Ltd. Chief Economist Home Cao Yuan Zheng said that the imbalance in the original structure of the global economic imbalances has added a new factor.
Very clear sighted, "currency war" behind the dispute, in fact, some developed countries for their economic and political needs, continuing to pressure to pass. Some countries Huafeng at China, to force "the RMB exchange rate appreciation."
March of this year, some U.S. lawmakers to claim that the RMB exchange rate has been "underestimated", thus exacerbating the U.S. trade deficit with China, and China threatened to impose punitive tariffs on exports.
In fact, resulting in the world and the countries the root cause of trade imbalance, the context of globalization the formation of international industrial division of labor to adjust the RMB exchange rate does not fundamentally solve the trade imbalance. While China started since July 2005 since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the end of 2009, the RMB exchange rate had increased by about 21%.
In view of this, the International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Yebu Langxia Er said that even if the renminbi and other Asian currencies appreciate by 20%, can only help to achieve the equivalent of U.S. exports 1% of gross domestic product growth .
Increases the difficulty of the domestic macro-control
Appreciation pressure on RMB exchange rate will undoubtedly increase the domestic macro-control more difficult.
Behind the exchange rate pressure is escalating trade frictions and protectionist actions. Statistics show that 35% of the world anti-dumping investigations and 71% are anti-subsidy investigations against Chinese exports.
More noteworthy is the easily lead to the expected appreciation of the RMB exchange rate risk of the domestic economy. "Major developed countries continue to implement quantitative easing policy, the expected appreciation of the renminbi has continued to improve in the case of continuous inflow of international liquidity domestically, increasing upward pressure on prices and asset prices, but also increases the difficulty of liquidity management." China People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian said so.
This year, the deepest feelings of the people than the domestic price rises. National Bureau of Statistics, October CPI rose 4.4%, or 25-month high.
Quarter of this year, showing a rapid increase in China's foreign exchange situation. Behind the surge in foreign exchange every month, the influx of hot money hiding figure, and to further strengthen the domestic base money supply, leading to inflationary pressures.
Statistics show that the People's Bank of China, China's Foreign Exchange Reserves as at 10 at the end of 21.8454 trillion yuan, up by 519 billion yuan, a record high of 30 months, after the April 2008 added 525.1 billion yuan in foreign exchange record.
In the context of excess liquidity, a lot of money looking for investment direction, agricultural areas has also become the object of speculation. From the "bean you play", "the garlic you hard," to the high price "black tea", there are "hot money" speculation in the shadow of madness.
Institute of Contemporary International Relations China Institute of Chen Fengying said the world economy, developed countries through the transfer of quantitative easing monetary policy crisis, would offset the tightening of policies to prevent the effects of inflation and the Chinese economy a huge risk.
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