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The following article was published in our article directory on November 26, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: Amanda xzh
By this time the U.S. government foreclosures and bank stress testing, forcing Wall Street's top money to escape from around the world. Of course, this is to find the best excuse for the Wall Street divestment. Analysis is that why Wall Street retreat at this time? First, second bottom on Wall Street know that the world economy coming soon. The world economy is now caught in a dilemma, if it continues to stimulate the economy, national government debt increased, the debt crisis may break out at any time; If you stop the stimulus, an immediate major economic decline in many countries, even in many countries of the bubble will soon burst. Second, once exposed to the debt problems of the euro, the world's pessimism will continue to heat up. Third, many countries have attached great importance to the dollar inflows, and the introduction of stringent policies to suppress asset bubbles. Fourth, some countries have very serious asset bubbles, in the government repression, the collapse may occur at any time. Wall Street, of course, can not under stand Weiqiang, it must be started at this time in full retreat.
According to the most recent visits to several developed countries, I feel such a possibility, but does not rule out this prediction is too pessimistic. From Korea to Australia, New Zealand and other countries, these countries may seem little, but in fact there is a large risk. Depreciation of the dollar makes Australian resource export-oriented fuel and forced to tighten monetary policy.
In my opinion, if this second bottom of the signs, generally from two local problems, one is the debt crisis, is the stimulus of a sudden collapse after the withdrawal. Because the crisis is unpredictable, so it has a destructive, including the Asian financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, have a surprise. Although many people have predicted, but the response strategy is not sufficient, until the economy got out of hand, the world was forced into action.
Recently, the sovereign debt crisis has spread. Recently, the international credit rating agency Moody's said that in view of the Irish banking crisis serious than expected, will be reduced Ireland's sovereign credit rating. In Ireland, China, due to the need for assistance, the Government has gone back undermine the credibility of the debt crisis is evolving as the political crisis. Moreover, we have reason to believe that Ireland is not the final victim of a sovereign debt crisis, sovereign debt crisis is just beginning. We believe that the sovereign debt crisis is likely to become an economic incentive to second bottom.
Another point is the outbreak of the crisis following the withdrawal of stimulus in the economic crisis. European countries to engage the public against the government policy of austerity, not only because of policy tightening will lead to damage to their own welfare, but also because it will lead to economic "endocrine disorders." Japan and the United States needs to quantitative easing policy, it is difficult moment changes. China already begun to tighten policy, such as real estate control policies, raised the reserve ratio five times and the most recent rate hike. We are concerned that these policies will be second bottom of the fuse.
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