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The following article was published in our article directory on November 25, 2010.
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Avoid Repeat Japanese Financial Crisis of the Old Road

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Japan's financial liberalization, interest rate market, the yen appreciation, the Japanese real estate and stock prices rose sharply mutual influence and push, eventually leading to the bubble formation and collapse. The financial bubble is actually composed of a real estate bubble, the stock market bubble and banking bubble, the bubble at the same time when the collapse of the three, the financial system and economic systems will undoubtedly be a fatal blow. In order to avoid the mistakes of the year in Japan, drawing on the experience of Japan, China should avoid in a short period of time, there interest rate liberalization, financial liberalization, the coexistence of RMB appreciation and asset bubbles, and promote each other's situation.

However, some contradictions have been formed in China, for example, the real estate bubble has been formed, financial liberalization has been partially achieved, foreign institutions has been more deeply involved in China's economic and financial system. Therefore, in order to prevent several bubbles meet, to achieve the purpose of each break, the Chinese still need to take a more prudent future reform and development measures.

Not to relax capital controls

China's financial reform and opening up, the principle still insist we take the initiative, not in foreign negotiations, controlled by others. In consideration of international cooperation, fundamentally, national interests should be based, as it did last century in Germany similar to the 80's and should not be the case in Japan that year.

Adhere to the internationalization of the RMB and the principle of gradual appreciation of the renminbi, while a considerable period of time to maintain the pattern of capital controls exist.

Recently, on the Internationalization of China adopted a series of measures, this is the new situation after the crisis, in order to improve the national currency in the international monetary system, the status of the initiative taken by the offensive strategy. However, due to the internationalization of RMB may also imply some new contradictions, such as the presence of the offshore market, domestic money supply, interest rates, exchange rates will have an impact. If handled properly, will cause greater impact on monetary stability. Therefore, in the current international economic and financial turmoil is still in the process, the process of internationalization of the RMB should be gradual. If the conditions are not met, hastily push the macro environment may adversely affect the stability.

Adhere to the steady appreciation of the renminbi and the principle of two-way floating, to avoid serious impact on the exchange rate of domestic financial stability. Meanwhile, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate corresponds to the depreciation of the dollar faces problems, which also involves China's foreign exchange reserves are too high due to the "dollar trap" problem. Therefore, the RMB appreciation and foreign exchange reserves should be used as a basket of issues, a unified consideration.

In promoting the internationalization of the RMB should be strengthened with capital controls, and not let go. The only way to avoid excessive movement of capital formation on the impact of the domestic financial system. In theory, the two are not in conflict. The theory has been proved that the full liberalization of capital account is not a necessary condition for using the money offshore, not sufficient condition. 60s of last century from the United States to 70 years of experience, the U.S. government to effectively control cross-border capital flows and did not prevent the international flow of dollars, and even to some extent also contributed to the development of the Eurodollar market.

Moderate slowdown in the pace of interest rate market

A more relaxed monetary policy in the context of steady interest rates to promote capital market development and market at the same time, we must strengthen the supervision of bank credit to maintain the stability of the banking system.

A more relaxed monetary policy in the context of strengthening the supervision of bank credit, to prevent excessive credit expansion. The lessons from the Japanese point of view of financial crisis, continued easing of monetary policy and bank credit expansion is the main factor inducing the crisis. For China, we continue for many years to implement a more relaxed monetary policy, but also from the trend, the future will maintain a relatively loose monetary policy, one important reason is that we will continue to face increasing foreign exchange, currency put the plight of the passive In this case, should strengthen the supervision on bank credit expansion. The size of bank loans, loans to invest in, such as the capital adequacy ratio of more stringent restrictions. Only in this way, you can prevent loose monetary policy, credit expansion impulse and trigger a new crisis.

Adhere to the development of domestic bond market and other capital market, the slow process of marketization of interest rates, deposit interest rates to avoid interest rate volatility in particular, of the banking system and the domestic financial system stability. Interest rate market should steadily adhere to the principle of gradual, while deepening the reform of commercial banks to strengthen and improve the ability to resist risks. From the current situation, China does not yet have the market deposit rates too fast process.

The problem of interest rate market we have mentioned the view that if the deposit reserve ratio main policy instruments, China's interest rate market is difficult to further development. The main reason is the equivalent of the deposit reserve ratio on bank tax, the higher the level equivalent to the higher tax, which means that monetary policy a larger negative impact on banks. To alleviate this problem, the need to maintain a higher deposit and loan poor, while maintaining control of interest rates on deposits may be a better choice.

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