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The following article was published in our article directory on November 23, 2010.
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China Should be More Active in the Global Bond Market

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Ireland on Sunday finally accepted the European Union and the news of IMF aid, easing the concerns of the European bond market. Ireland and Greece, the debt crisis, debt crisis, the biggest difference is that the euro has not been much involved in, during which the euro against the dollar and the yen exchange rate were stable, while the debt crisis, the euro has suffered a serious setback. Meanwhile, the Irish were ahead enough to support the debt financing a year, initially refused to accept the EU initiative to provide aid, fear of being asked to improve their corporate income tax rate of 12.5%, to combat the economic recovery. European Union and the IMF for assistance to promote the Irish capital, the debt between the parties, without prejudice to the stability of the balance between economic recovery has been unanimous.

IMF Fiscal Affairs Department director, recently said that the hardship for the debt default risk for euro membership have been exaggerated. The debt crisis of the euro in Ireland's performance, it shows investors are worried about the debt of smaller countries in Europe, the euro has been supported with the judgments of the European economy as a whole decoupling. Comparison can take the initiative by the Federal Reserve note-issuing debt to buy their own U.S. debt market, the euro currency should not be more clear that self-regulation in the cold. In addition to the right of U.S. domestic politics and national interests of the opposition, fiscal balance and debt will shrink encountered great difficulties, the recent U.S. crisis, the local municipal bond market, also indicates that the local government will default, leading to large investment and withdrawal, and will lead to greater risk of the U.S. federal budget. Because the local government bankruptcy will directly endanger the employment and economic recovery, leading to greater expenditure on unemployment benefits and tax base to shrink. The Democratic and Republican parties in the United States refused the case of reductions in military spending, balance the finances to fully become who want to raise taxes and cut benefits to the country to whom game.

But in Europe, the Irish government, the Greek government and the U.S. government such as the existence of a lack of self-government, but also means that the risk of future obligations may be reproduced. Ireland into the root causes of the debt crisis lies within the euro zone over the past decade, enjoy low interest rates and excessively loose monetary conditions, resulting in a serious real estate bubble, and the Irish government to bring in the real estate bubble in the financial bubble, substantially reduce the personal income tax, so that the financial bubble economy more dependent on real estate, but also improve the government sector wages, and expand financial expenditure. At present, Ireland's house prices still higher than the highest point in 2006, down nearly 40% during the bubble does not discipline, it means that after the bubble burst serious economic and political pressure, although Ireland has the depth in the implementation of fiscal austerity. The Greek government in the current financial crunch, and even government departments can not be honored to be layoffs commitment.

Face the same huge uncertainty and risk of U.S. Treasuries and European bonds market, China's foreign reserve investment loss to get rid of passive acceptance of the situation, we need to re-examine the current safety standards of foreign reserve, and to introduce comprehensive national interests the changing role of active investment. China needs to accelerate the depreciation of the U.S. debt from the transfer, to a number of countries in the world into a debt trap, the selective support of different parts of the debt financing and economic recovery. Predict long-term benefits of economic development and the debt problems of the world's economists are, but China as the largest purchaser of alternative investment and support, but is the country's debt by investment security and economic security of the most explicit terms.

Returned to the United States can buy back U.S. debt issuing and diluted the ability of U.S. debt, does not mean that the safety of U.S. debt and foreign reserve assets of the investment hedge degrees. As the dollar of any country outside the reserve, including China, can not be used in this country, then measure its level of security and asset preservation the only criterion is that the global foreign reserve assets of the corresponding investment in the purchasing power of the foreign exchange reserve to global assets, including gold, land, energy, minerals and so on. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar purchasing power represented by the ongoing slide in global assets is the safety of foreign reserve assets, the greatest harm, and this is an unstoppable trend, the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar is nothing, because the yuan is the corresponding assets in China and the corresponding dollar reserves than China's global assets.

The next ten years, China will be used to balance the deficit of the foreign reserve funds may not be over 600 billion U.S. dollars, which means that although the high mobility of U.S. debt, but the 2.6 trillion of 2 trillion foreign reserve do not need high flow sex. Have the same uncertainty for the euro and the dollar economy and the European bonds and U.S. Treasuries, and then taking into account the overall national interests, China should consider a 2 trillion foreign reserve ratio of 50% each to invest in U.S. Treasuries and European bonds, which has quite fair. Also, Europe has not a serious violation of international rules "of the Taiwan Relations Act", which is Europe and the U.S. strategic significance for China's the biggest difference. Taiwan remains the core interests of China. Including outside storage of any country, including investment decisions, should not forget that, especially when the economic risk of investment in the face of the same indicators of other national interests must be introduced to integrate the selected time.

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