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The following article was published in our article directory on November 22, 2010.
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Spain is the Touchstone of Stability in the Euro Area

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Yesterday, Greece, Ireland, today, tomorrow who? European debt crisis has played into a series, but the protagonist high turnover, "European pig Five" great momentum appeared side by side. So far, despite the "plot" details different, but the outcome of each is exactly the same, are provided assistance by the EU temporarily turned the corner.

Ireland had been eating to make a handout of the gesture, but it has proven to fight some of it was just a means of bargaining chips, so the story changes in some of the ups and downs. 18, the Irish Central Bank has stated publicly to accept the EU's assistance, the euro rallied, the market new dawn.

But this series is clearly not over, Europe and the debt crisis worries remain. Like Spain, Portugal and Greece also have sovereign debt problems of these countries, little sign of trouble will affect the market nerves. Transferred by the Irish crisis of good slow, 18 Spain, a successful auction of 3.6 billion euros over the long-term and long-term bonds, but Spain has more than ten-year Treasury rate of 4.6%, to Europe in May this year, the highest level since the debt crisis. Although 9% of Greek government bonds with interest rate and Treasury bill rate of 5.5% in Ireland compared to Spain's national debt interest rates still relatively low level, can be Spain if there are problems, the threat of the euro area is comparable to the other two countries can not. Spain's GDP accounted for 12% of the total euro area, ranked fourth in the euro area, Greece, Portugal and Ireland, twice the sum of the three economies. If the EU market, a large loss of confidence in the economy, the European scale and impact of the debt crisis than it is now quite different. To some extent, whether or not Spain is the touchstone of stability in the euro area.

The first three quarters of this year, the Spanish economy to 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.2% of the rate of weak growth, while the previous seven quarters, the G DP of Spain continued to decline. Past three years, the Spanish economy of the international financial crisis and the double whammy of the real estate bubble burst, has not recovered.

Over the past decade, the Spanish economy's strong performance is largely driven by the real estate industry. In the peak period of economic prosperity, Spain 70 million new residential units per year. The financial crisis in one fell swoop to shoot a real estate bubble, crisis, Spain has shrunk to an annual 10 million new residential units, house prices fell sharply, the high vacancy rate in the short term to promote economic development depend on the possibility of real estate is almost zero.

Spain's large enterprises focused on real estate, energy, telecommunications and financial industries, export-oriented industrial enterprises are small and generally not high skill level. GDP, imports and exports from 1999 to before the financial crisis has been about 60% to 50% during the crisis, while the import volume is also much higher than exports. It appears that short-term boost to exports as the engine of the economy is unrealistic.

Economic downturn makes the unemployment rate soaring, the current unemployment rate of 20% in Spain, the unemployment rate for young people up to 40%. No job no consumption, together with the Spanish government to reduce the growing budget deficit, the implementation, including reduction in civil service wages, freeze pensions, abolition of newborn babies to reduce government subsidies and public investment and a series of stringent savings measures. In addition, from July 1 this year onwards, in order to increase tax revenue, the Spanish government increased the VAT rate. Although the success of these measures will achieve the fiscal deficit down to 9% of GDP target, but inhibit the growth of domestic demand, while domestic demand only the more realistic the Spanish economic growth. Although the Government of Spain has had economic growth is expected in 2011 from 1.8% to 1.3%, but the ability to achieve this goal is still uncertain. Gomez said the Spanish minister of labor, to achieve a substantial increase in jobs, the Spanish economy need to achieve 2% growth.

Economic boom in 1996, Spain's public debt from 70% to 40%, while the financial crisis and the public debt rose to nearly 60% level. The ratio point of view, Spain's public debt level is not high, but because of the larger Spanish economy as a whole, the scale of public debt is also rising. According to Professor Roubini at New York University School of Business statistics, Spain's public debt of 1 trillion euros, while Greece is only 300 billion euros. Roubini believes that if Spain fallen off a cliff, the EU does not have enough resources to rescue them. Some organizations estimate that from now to 2013, Ireland, Portugal needs about 117 billion euros of capital, but Spain needs of 351 billion euros over the same period, only next year, Spain would need 65 billion euros of new financing. To be without prejudice to the case of the euro area to provide such a huge sum of money to Spain, it is very difficult to do so, the EU total of 750 billion euros in emergency aid funds will soon be stretched.

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