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The following article was published in our article directory on November 18, 2010.
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Emerging Markets Implementation Inflation Inhibition Bubble Action

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

South Korea decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, following a July rate hike of 25 basis points rate hike after the second year. Earlier this month, the Vietnamese central bank has unexpectedly sharply raise interest rates 100 basis points to 9% for the first time in December 2009 raised the benchmark interest rate. In this regard, the gold company that the Korean and Vietnam inflation caused by supply side and demand side upstream of the factors that continue to exist, the Government's interim short-term relief measures to be effective, but to ease inflationary pressures in the first quarter of next year, not very helpful. Overall, emerging market countries, anti-inflation bubble suppression action will continue to escalate.

CICC report points out that real interest rates in many Asian countries is still negative (such as India, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam) and most countries, real interest rates remain below average in 2010. Among them, Korea and Vietnam before the effective interest rate hikes were -1.85% and -1.66%, rate hike is justified. Moreover, South Korea, Vietnam, China's economic fundamentals have been signs of overheating, asset bubbles, the risk is coming, no doubt the urgency of raising interest rates. Among them, the reasons for raising interest rates in Vietnam more obvious: the country's October CPI rose 9.66%, 8.92% more than 9 months, exceeding the government target of 8% of the nearly 2 percentage points, and the last two months than the growth rings are on the rise; In addition, Vietnam this year 1-3 quarter GDP grew 5.8%, 5.3% and 4.4%, GDP output gap has disappeared.

China International Capital Corporation believes that the reasons for the external point of view, hot money inflows is round a common feature of emerging market inflation. Data show that the Korean stock market fund inflows accumulated since 2009 was significantly increased, and the inflows have accelerated the trend, the year 2009 the cumulative total amount of funds into the Korean stock market funds of 50 billion U.S. dollars, as of November 2010 inflows reached 7.2 billion U.S. dollars. Won a substantial capital inflows led to appreciation since early 2010, the cumulative appreciation of 3.2% has been won.

In Vietnam, although it has also capital inflows, but South Korea and most emerging markets is different is that the depreciation of the dong, reflecting lack of confidence in the currency of the country. Vietnam stock market in early 2010, the Fund has accumulated capital inflow was only 243 million in early 2010 has decreased by 5% in local currency, in order to ease the Vietnamese Dong against the U.S. dollar continued to fall, the central bank through open market operations to buy VND to sell dollars.

However, Korea and Vietnam, the effectiveness of raising interest rates, CICC is not optimistic. CICC report that the Government's interim short-term relief measures to be effective, but to ease inflationary pressures in the first quarter of next year, not very helpful. In addition, the influx of hot money continues to face anti-appreciation of the Korean and anti-inflation dilemma: on the one hand continue to appreciate the damage to their vital export industries; the other hand, if the money supply by increasing the stability of the currency, will have to face greater inflationary pressures. Therefore, control of South Korea have adopted the possibility of increased capital inflows. Possible measures include: charge on foreign exchange transactions "Tobin tax", to further restrict the derivatives positions; and controversial return to foreign bond holders to re-impose 14% withholding tax.

CICC also believes that, compared to South Korea, Asia's other emerging markets at greater risk of asset bubbles, the bubble's task more difficult to resist. Forward-looking perspective, emerging markets, anti-inflation action will also upgrade the bubble suppression, the specific measures taken by the appreciation of capital flows, interest rates and control of a portfolio of policies.

Keywords: China ASG-B Handhold ECU Timing Signal Generator, CRb-100 Test Bench,

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