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The following article was published in our article directory on November 18, 2010.
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Quantitative Easing Fear of Endangering the World

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

The resolution further the Fed's dollar to the market that long period of time in the future continue to major currencies, the United States for a long period of time to maintain low interest rates to stimulate the domestic economy and exports, improve the competitiveness of domestic enterprises . But as the world's most important currency in U.S. dollars, and its volatility in the international market will have a profound impact.

First of all, the Fed further depreciation of quantitative easing, the dollar will lure hot money flows to emerging economies, especially in the economic recovery faster and earlier implementation of the national liberal exit policy, the hot money on the one hand the way through the carry trade interest margins At the same time on various types of risk in emerging economies, speculative asset speculation, and further push up the price of fixed assets such as real estate, increase market bubble, leading to global inflation. In essence, the Fed's policy of quantitative easing has not increased the actual circulation of domestic currency, printing money printed out of the way inflation mainly through the hot money into emerging economies, pushing up asset bubbles. At the same time for the major holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar depreciation is conducive to the further dilution of U.S. debt, so that other countries suffer huge exchange losses of U.S. dollar assets. Once the recovery of the U.S. economy, the Fed would quickly withdraw liquidity, resulting in the rapidly emerging economies of hot money back the U.S., pushing up the asset bubble will burst in the near future, a deadly blow to the economies of developing countries. Emerging economies in response to the international hot money shocks have a forward-looking, need to combine various types of policy or monetary instruments to prevent asset bubbles, and some emerging market countries have started including the strengthening of capital controls, to raise domestic interest rate and other policy tools to prevent and hedge the risk of hot money inflows. Brazil's central bank said publicly that foreign investment has been decided to increase the national debt financial transactions tax, but also take other prudent measures to prevent the United States brought about by the easing of credit bubble.

For Europe and other mature economies, the Fed's quantitative easing policy is likely to lead to deflation in the euro zone into a first half of 2010, the euro zone sovereign debt crises can be described as the CPE to the Greek-led five-nation European pig weight deficit was accounted for GPD more than 100%, as investors worried about Europe within the euro zone debt crisis spread of the euro in the international capital markets blew out. European governments have taken several initiatives, including fiscal tightening, joint rescue package plan to tighten their belts, etc., tide over the crisis, while the euro also led to the depreciation of the euro zone exports, the recovery of the economy play a stimulating role. However, the second phase of the Fed's unilateral quantitative easing will eventually cause the rapid depreciation of the dollar against the euro, thus weakening the competitiveness of euro-zone economy, the euro area are more likely to fall into deflation, making just the euro through the sovereign credit crisis area once again in crisis, sovereign credit deterioration, rising bond yields, increased financing costs of sovereignty, weaken the solvency of the debtor countries. The euro is currently close to 3% inflation rate makes the ECB can not inhibit the appreciation of the euro, and further increase the risk of deflation, thereby increasing the valuation of sovereign debt.

Capital markets, the Fed bought a large number of bonds from the market will to some extent pushed the price of fixed income bonds, lowering the market rate of return, lower borrowing costs and stimulate enterprises to increase investment, and tap the potential consumer demand, as to stimulate domestic economic recovery and the unemployment rate lower. Capital flows from the global point of view, inflation is bound to be rich in various ways into the global capital markets, pushing up stock prices and asset prices worldwide. Especially the more liquid financial asset prices, global stock markets, commodities and foreign exchange market non-US currencies, gold and so in the near future be a significant move up. On the one hand prices reflect investor expectations of global inflation, on the other hand, also shows that the quantitative easing policy of the United States influence has been transmitted to the global capital markets.

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