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The following article was published in our article directory on November 16, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: xia zihui
Federal Reserve policy of quantitative easing is the second round of positive steps. But far enough to cope with severe recession
The latest economic data show that even for the best case, the U.S. economic recovery is still weak. But the November employment report was released gratifying - the United States added 151,000 jobs. This is close to zero most economists had forecast, compared the situation much better, but not to the time of rejoicing. The United States must create 10 million jobs per month job to adjust to the labor force increased. This rate, the U.S. economy to date, more than a decade to recover lost 7.5 million jobs.
According to the U.S. the previous week reported third-quarter GDP data, the entire painful and bleak economic prospects. U.S. third quarter economic growth rate of 2.0%, slightly higher than expected, and most studies have focused here. However, these reports ignore the fact that economic growth in the third quarter, mainly due to a significant increase in inventories.
In the third quarter was the second highest inventory accumulation, which contribute to economic growth this quarter by 1.4 percentage points. Excluding inventories factors, third quarter economic growth was only 0.6%. If the fourth quarter, inventories increased back to normal, U.S. economic growth may be negative.
Quantitative understanding of the new round of Fed easing, we must consider the background. The U.S. economy is running well below its intrinsic potential, unless there is some external stimulus, or the near future is unlikely to resume its potential output. In the next eight months, the Fed decided to buy 600 billion U.S. dollars debt, is moving in the direction of a step stimulus.
This is the beginning of 2009 declared the first round of the quantitative easing policy to continue. At that time, the Fed bought $ 1,250,000,000,000 mortgage-backed securities, bonds and 300 billion dollars. At that time, the rapid decline in the U.S. economy. This practice will help drive down long-term interest rates, stable economy as a whole.
New initiatives to help reduce interest rates, despite the limited effect. Currently, the U.S. has dropped to very low levels of long-term interest rates, the Federal Reserve holdings of government bonds can not be pulled even lower, may result in the best interest rates expected to drop 30 -40 basis points. This can lead to the private sector, interest rates declined slightly, while the mortgage loans and corporate bonds, interest rates are also similar.
This will also help to promote growth, but is unlikely to make fundamental change in U.S. economic fundamentals. Small decline in mortgage rates, will not make housing market recovery will not lead to investment boom. Despite the positive response to the U.S. stock market, and will expand consumption through the wealth effect, but the impact would not be significant.
Value of the dollar may be affected the most. Since the Fed's determination to maintain low interest rates, investors may turn to alternatives to dollar assets. This will lead to the dollar, in turn, improve the U.S. trade balance. Shizaibiran weak dollar, the second round of the quantitative easing policy may speed up the process.
Nevertheless, the Fed's move is still disappointing. Given the severe economic recession in the U.S. and its long-term sustainability, to spend 600 billion U.S. dollars to buy bonds only very modest measures. More effective policy is closely pegged to the inflation target the Fed should not give up. If the Fed's goal is to maintain inflation at moderate levels (3% -4%), you can change the market's expectations, and thus change the market behavior.
If the most goods and services market is expected within four years 12% -16% price increase, even if in the current economic situation, the industry will be very willing to increase investment, and also help moderate inflation, the residents get out of debt. As residents of the debt in nominal terms, if inflation to wage rose 15%, 15% will reduce its debt burden. This will stimulate consumption and economic growth.
Price increase should also be synchronized with the general inflation rate. The next four years, if house prices rose 15%, will help a lot of people out of trouble. It will also help increase the number of rooms are trillions of dollars in wealth.
However, another benefit of the Federal Reserve holdings of government bonds are known. Fed holdings of government bonds and bonds do not pose any burden on the Government. This is because, although the Fed interest charged and interest will ultimately return the United States Treasury. Last year, the Fed returned to the Treasury 77 billion U.S. dollars of debt interest, net interest income which is equivalent to the government for nearly 40%. The Fed decided to buy and hold bonds, can prevent the burden of debt interest into the Ministry of Finance.
In short, the second round of the quantitative easing policy, in the current economic situation, is a positive step. But unfortunately, it is insufficient to fully offset the impact of severe economic recession.
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