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The following article was published in our article directory on November 15, 2010.
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Three Factors Decision International Crude Oil Uplink Height

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Economic level: ample liquidity and easy or hard up

The recent flood of global liquidity as the focus of global concern. And November 2-3 at the Fed's interest-rate statement after the meeting: the second quarter in 2011 to acquire a further 600 billion U.S. dollars before the longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

Although the "second liberal" does not and the first, but this time to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, the equivalent of issuing a direct, downward pressure on the dollar unabated. And increase global inflationary pressures are prompting a growing number of countries have tightened monetary policy, such as China, Australia and India have to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The United States and other countries the reverse of monetary policy to expand our interest rate spreads will result in an outflow of U.S. capital, but also indirectly suppress the dollar.

If "a liberal" is back on the international commodity prices, a reasonable level, then the "second loose" The dollar is falling caused by higher commodity prices inevitably stimulate. Can be said that the "second loose" opens the door to the era of inflation. The path of the current round of inflation and the 2007,2008 similar to that of inflation through the prices of agricultural products to enter China and other emerging countries, and spiraling inflation in emerging countries, and then output back to the developed countries. This also means that goods entering the era of the revaluation.

Political level: the U.S. mid-term elections or higher level

Democrat Barack Obama from the United States since he took office, oil prices remained range bound in the 70-80 dollar trend. The Middle Eastern countries led by Saudi Arabia have repeatedly indicated that oil prices of 70-80 dollars is satisfied. In early November, but this attitude of the U.S. mid-term elections has changed. During the mid-term elections in the United States, above all, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said in a speech in Singapore, "Consumers look to oil price at 70 dollars, but I hope less than 90 dollars." Subsequently, the oil ministers of Qatar and other countries unanimously issued public statements in the , said the 70-90 dollar price of oil is the ideal level. This is the first time in two years, OPEC countries increased their desired price range.

In the U.S. midterm elections, the Republicans gained the House of Representatives overwhelmingly control of the situation on the formation of the ruling Democratic Party of potential constraints. Middle East countries have chosen the ideal oil price increase at this time interval, which means obvious. From a political perspective, OPEC countries may be more willing to cooperate in oil prices prompted the Republican Party to a new level.

Movement from the capital, the market mood to do more in the near future continues to heat up. As of November 5, NYMEX crude oil futures was 1,521,899 thousand barrels of total positions, close to May 2007 when the highest level. Published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report showed NYMEX crude oil futures positions as of November 2 week, non-commercial net long to 130 108 thousand barrels, more than a month showed a non-commercial long positions increasing trend.

Supply and demand levels: short-term rise in oil prices dragged down the "culprit"

Indicators to measure supply and demand of crude oil, on the one hand look at the economic performance of major countries; other hand, the EIA reported U.S. crude inventories also to some extent reflects supply and demand of oil. As the world's largest crude oil consumer the United States, while taking a massive quantitative easing policy, but in the economic operation of the above did not see significant improvement, we can from the U.S. Conference Board and the Economic Cycle Research Institute published measure of future U.S. economic growth speed of the leading indicators discerned. U.S. Conference Board leading indicators from April 2010 began to fall, and continue to remain at 99 below, shows that the U.S. economic growth will continue to slow. Does not appear in the leading indicators of economic rebound, before the demand level, the crude oil prices will rise more difficult to get support.

In addition, from the inventory point of view, since March this year, U.S. crude oil inventories remain above 3.5 million barrels, the recent trend have continued to increase. As of October 29 the week U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to 368.2 million barrels, representing an increase of 3230 million barrels. Wings hope that the market started in the fourth quarter, demand for heating oil, but U.S. distillate stocks, although the recent decline, but remained at historically high levels, short-term is difficult to effectively support the prices.

Expected oil prices in the $ 90 the milestones, if you want to break up, need to wait for demand and supply side there is more effective improvement.

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