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The following article was published in our article directory on November 12, 2010.
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How to Quit the Economic Stimulus Policy

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, G20 summit to become great powers of economic policy coordination is an important platform for the universal introduction of massive economic stimulus plan to prevent further deterioration of the crisis. Entered the stage of economic recovery, economic stimulus how to exit the international community once again become a priority task of the Toronto Summit in June this year has reached a basic consensus on this. However, the current on the whole, the global economic recovery is still weak, the process of national recovery, there are differences between the economic policies of major countries showing a more obvious differences.

Compared with previous economic cycles, the cycle of recovery is more sluggish, which has been particularly evident in developed countries. In accordance with the International Monetary Fund study, in normal circumstances two years after the crisis average of 3.7% economic growth, and this time only 2.4%. Although the Toronto summit, the United States and Japan, promised major developed countries to implement tight fiscal policy, but to accelerate the pace of recovery, these countries are to continue the implementation of the low level of interest rate policy.

More serious is the subject of unemployment, and domestic political pressures, the Fed restart the quantitative easing monetary policy. As a "world currency" of the issuer, the short term of the policy impact on global currency markets and inflation expectations have appeared; long term, the United States to use the currency devaluation shifted the risk of debt creditor concerns being raised. Tight-step the United States followed the Bank of Japan has recently restarted quantitative easing monetary policy.

Emerging economies is leading the global economic recovery is another prominent feature of the economic cycle. To date, most emerging economies emerged in varying degrees of lanes are signs of economic overheating, rising inflation and increasing pressure on asset prices, and thus need to exit the crisis period of economic stimulus. However, the economic policies of these countries is also a dilemma: on the one hand need to be taken to contain inflationary pressures, tighter monetary policy; the other hand, developed countries continue to implement the policy of low interest rates, emerging economies will increase interest rate policy spread between the developed countries to stimulate inflow of hot money, increase domestic pressure on inflation and asset price inflation. Restart the quantitative easing policy of the Fed and bring them the pressure of currency appreciation. To this end, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand and many other countries have begun to control capital inflows.

At present, the developed countries and emerging economies, policy differences is largely due to differences in the process of economic recovery. On the one hand, developed countries as the birthplace of the international financial crisis, a drastic shrinkage of assets of its inhabitants brought weak consumer demand and investment in the doldrums, not the short term to change. Interest rates remain at historically low levels still failed to stimulate investment and consumption demand is proof. Restart the quantitative easing monetary policy induced domestic inflation may be in the final before the first inflation input to the emerging economies. On the other hand, emerging economies to recover first contributed to the global economy, but may have to "pay the price": the first revival to attract foreign investment, inflation and asset price inflation; measures to curb overheating of the economy to further attract the inflow of hot money ; input from developed countries to force them to adopt a more inflationary economic policy tightening. This may affect the recovery process in emerging economies, triggering the collapse of asset bubbles. The emerging economies in order to prevent hot money inflows, currency appreciation and widespread introduction of capital controls may lead to the exchange rate will be further wars and trade wars. Thus, in the global economy has entered a recovery phase, how to effectively coordinate economic policies among countries, in particular, to prevent certain countries to take self-serving policies shift the risk to become a key issue.

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