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The following article was published in our article directory on November 12, 2010.
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Attention of the World How To End the War Currency

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Attracted worldwide attention, but also attracted a small number of demonstrations in Seoul G20 summit, which concluded today. Looking forward to meeting able to solve the so-called "currency war" substantive solutions to reach only one conclusion that people fear, and that is disappointing. Will be released today, "Seoul Declaration" has gone through several rounds of heated debate, on the content and wording, the final published version will be a version acceptable to all parties. The economic interests of all countries in the world, political orientation, views and ideas under the unprecedented situation of contending parties can accept, it means that no substantive content.

The currency of war is simply a "dark horse" in the international economic and political on the big stage, in a very short time and quickly occupied a prominent position. In fact, until this year, the most important issue in Seoul summit also set in the global financial safety net and financial reforms in areas such as the situation in October and IMF annual meetings around the rapidly changing world, the currency of war become the focus in the moment focus.

Although this dramatic, it is not accidental. The situation of starting a lot with the ride. Uneven (Uneven) the recovery of the global provision into two hemispheres: one side is the high growth, increasing inflationary pressures, capital inflows, currency appreciation, monetary tightening; the other side of economic stagnation, facing deflation, super-loose monetary conditions, capital outflows, currency depreciation (there are exceptions) - so brought unprecedented challenges, I am afraid only the money to the war of rhetoric that the expression of sensational.

However, let us reason Laijiang Jiang with the sensational topics. In the last column I said that this is a war not yet started, this period to talk about this so-called war Is there a solution?

Solution Currency War

Currency War, capital inflows have been included, the global economic imbalances, exchange rate and other entangled multiple content, but must find a Niu Bizi, then obviously it is also only the exchange rate. Therefore, the declaration to be announced today, we will see the definition of the war, but whether it is competitive devaluation, or competitive undervalued currency, to see Members of the negotiations and the positions of the parties, the latter words directed at China, the former point to broader terms, apparently including the United States has just launched a QE2. The declaration said that, we have to avoid this situation.

However, how can we avoid such a situation? In the interests of the full diversity of the international scene, really not easy to come up with solutions. For example, some critics say that under the declaration to the United States in the super-loose monetary policy (including the QE2), which is a lot of people think that capital flows to emerging markets, the source of currency appreciation pressure, however, more people will soon be denied. For example, some people hope that the Declaration directed at the Chinese speaker, said that the Chinese currency undervalued, but may not be able to reach agreement.

As the wording acceptable to all, the Declaration said that States will be more to let the market determine the currency's exchange rate, that is, the exchange rate to be more variable. This predominance of long-term view of the past is the same, IMF working paper recently investigated a different exchange rate regimes in the world economy to recover from the crisis situation, concluded that instability in post-crisis recession, the fixed exchange rate and floating exchange rate economy recession levels differ, but the difference was small; but in the recovery phase, the floating exchange rate economies faster and better recovery.

However, the problem is that the dollar is the international currency, its exchange rate following the market turbulence, more precisely, in order to promote exports, improve competitiveness and to a weak dollar policy (this trend has become more clear), the world will pay a price. It is because of such concerns, and even the World Bank President Robert Zoellick, have begun to propose surprising "Bretton Woods III", he meant not a return to the gold standard, but to the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese between the renminbi yuan and the future of a stable mechanism. This is not a new idea, including the Export-Import Bank of China Li Ruogu, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda will have a similar reference earlier. G20 next year will take over the banner of the French earlier this year also started from the discussion and deliberation to establish the possibility of similar mechanisms.

In addition to enormous technical problems and the concept of conflict, the establishment of the Bretton Woods system similar to the biggest obstacles may still dollars, if the United States finds its national interests will come from the weak dollar (if so, whether he verbally declared), then the global negotiations will be very hard .

Stable, or more float, this is a huge problem of differences in the short term is difficult to solve.

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