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The following article was published in our article directory on November 9, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: Amanda xzh
What is worrying is the world real interest rates in many economies in the history of the very low levels, in addition to Australia. Since last year, Australia has been raising interest rates seven times, while allowing the Australian dollar rose sharply.
Therefore, I believe the flood is taking shape, not somewhere, but everywhere. Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve Board) of the "quantitative easing" may activate the U.S. economy, but also make a lot of money into Asia. Asian economies have a high degree of tension in the relevant officials. Investors put money into growing consistently faster and higher return on investment economy. According to the IMF (IMF) predicted that the emerging economies of Asia's economic growth rate this year of 9.3%, Bibi poor American bar. The influx of cash flow for the Asian and other emerging market currencies to bring greater pressure to appreciate. This year the baht against the U.S. dollar rose more than 11% of the total, up 6% against the dollar, Korean won, Philippine peso rose 8%.
Last week, Bank of Korea said in its report, the United States and other major countries of the "quantitative easing" policy created ample liquidity to emerging markets is rapidly influx. Planning senior Treasury official said South Korea will actively seek to take measures to mitigate the sudden increase of capital flows due to fluctuations. South Korea October CPI (consumer price index) rose 4.1%. The central bank had to raise interest rates again. Interest rates are relatively high in the Philippines this year to attract a large number of bond investors. Largest refinery in the Philippines, Petron Corp. Just issued $ 470,000,000 worth of peso-denominated bonds with a coupon of 7%. This time, Fed action may further appreciation of the peso. Philippine central bank is careful attention to how the Fed's move will enhance the prospects of global inflation.
Hong Kong, China hot money again to accept the impact on the linked exchange rate system. Consistent with the U.S. dollar, in fact, entered the United States is a passive, low interest rates, the Hong Kong economy and the economy of mainland China because of the close ties and strong growth. Pushing low-interest loans, including real estate, works of art including a variety of assets and stock prices. Capital inflows on home loans forced the Government to adopt more stringent provisions, the Hong Kong real estate market over the past year as to cool the demand for loans has been tightened several times, but the Hong Kong housing prices since early in 2009 rose nearly 50 are still %. The second round of the U.S. "quantitative easing" policy and then out again on the property market will straitjacket.
This year, many Asian emerging economies, prices rose faster than the central bank expected. The next few months, with good harvests, food prices, slower growth in Asia overall inflation may be easing. But the agency expects Asian economies more than the products and services will continue to be in short supply, price pressure will increase. At this point, across the ocean from the large-scale capital flows into Asia on asset prices (especially housing) have a tremendous thrust.
Interest rates alone is not enough, because it will result in arbitrage activities, thus promoting the appreciation of the currency. In order to suppress the currency appreciation, many Asian central banks to actively intervene in currency markets to absorb the dollars. But almost all foreign exchange intervention would lead to deterioration in the inflation trend, the currency exchange rate is down, oil and other imported raw materials more expensive. End, or up domestic prices. Therefore, central banks in emerging Asia is more focus on specific asset prices. China, Malaysia and Singapore have adopted restrictions on the mortgage loan to be controlled.
However, only against a specific asset price bubbles, and can not really stop inflation quickly become a reality, even in the capital and out of mainland China under control. Investors are not stupid, they are prepared to take drastic measures before the central bank fishing for votes. Yesterday, the Chinese stock market closed higher. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.0%. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.8%. China International Capital Corporation Limited, said a recent report, China's central bank will likely take more measures to curb inflation and control of hot money inflows, but this does not make sufficient domestic liquidity tightened in the short term. It is foreseeable that sufficient liquidity will lead to strong demand, and promote China's stock market rise further next spring.
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