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The following article was published in our article directory on November 9, 2010.
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QE2 to Save Wall Street Instead of the Real Economy

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Bow of the QE2 is no turning back end will be? Bernanke has been plagued this may be a problem.

Liu Yuhui explained, QE2 in fact there is a logic that a lot of liquidity due to profit-driven flows to emerging market economies, not only will drive asset prices in those areas, the same will spur economic growth. A large number of listed companies in the United States is the nature of multinational corporations, 70% of its profits from emerging market economies. Once the economy started to grow in emerging countries, but also means that the performance of listed companies higher. As a result, these funds will go to pushed up share prices of listed companies. On the other hand, a large number of U.S. residents have 401K pension plan, the release of the wealth effect, these people are likely to be out ahead of the pension spending. Because consumption is a leader in driving U.S. economic growth, once the substantive recovery, U.S. economic recovery also will move toward normal.

"However, this logic is very dangerous. It must continue to maintain the three conditions," Liu Yuhui changed the subject, first of all, the Fed printing speed can not be down, and the cycle must continue to inject liquidity into the financial system; Second, once the emerging market economy overheating, inflation and whether it will lose its back to the United States. If the interest rate facing the United States, then this logic will be completely cut off; Finally, the U.S. does not want to collapse of the dollar, but to a controlled devaluation. Depreciation of the dollar is really vicious, then the market is likely to lead to selling government bonds yields soared. QE have the funds released back risk. It should be noted that credit growth to solve the entity can only rely on economic restructuring. However, unemployment remains high in the present case, the economic entities of the probability is not significant.

BOC executive vice president and chief economist Cao Yuan Zheng (blog), to the "Daily Economic News" that began in June last year the world's major economies to have begun the road to recovery, but no employment growth in the U.S. recovery is difficult to understand. Once this happens, only two results, the employment rate through macroeconomic pulling the high unemployment rate or a drag on economic downturn. From the current situation, the U.S. economic outlook is more interested in the latter. In fact, the quantitative easing does help to prevent a new round of financial crisis, but raising the economy is meaningless. Not into the real sector of funds, it is unlikely to inflation. Fed actually fall into the "Keynesian liquidity trap," that no matter how much more money, it will be stored. On the other hand, emerging economies in the steady stream of hot money inflows, it is very likely situation of a sustained inflation. Need to guard against is that the future world will be a new pattern. The recovery process and recovery management are inconsistent, which is reflected deflation in Europe, Asia and other emerging economies, the phenomenon of inflation. G20 now must be concerned about whether the agreement in this regard and the willingness of the United States itself QE Close the faucet. Overall, QE2's results will not only ensure the economic recession it.

Interestingly, in the last round of QE after the release of the first bounce was actually a huge bailout of the U.S. government had received a number of Wall Street banks. According to newspaper reports, the 2009 Q3, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other banks the average profit of 6 $ 1,646,000,000, in addition to Bank of America and Citigroup, the other four banks the average net profit surged 216% year on year, average earnings per share $ 1.08 . The most eye-catching performance is JP Morgan Chase, net profit of 3.59 billion U.S. dollars, soared 581 percent year on year. Goldman Sachs is the most-than-expected results, its earnings per share of $ 5.25, higher than market expectations of $ 1.01. Crazy rally on Wall Street performance, its year-end bonuses are also a record high. Last year, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs will release the three giant bonuses of up to 29.7 billion dollars, an increase of 60%, even more than the highest level in history in 2007 26.8 billion. If this bonus share to 11.9 million employees who took the equivalent of $ 250,000 per person, near the U.S. median household income last year 5 times.

Save Wall Street instead of the real economy, the Fed launched QE2 is not only global but also narcotic anesthesia itself.

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