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The following article was published in our article directory on November 5, 2010.
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European Central Bank Slow Exit Policy Steps

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

The Fed announced the launch of the second round of 3 quantitative easing monetary policy, said in the middle of next year before the re-acquisition of 600 billion U.S. dollars debt. This news came out, the rapid devaluation of U.S. dollar foreign exchange market, the euro against the dollar shot up all the way from 1 to 1.40 to 1 ratio of 1.42 or more. The Fed's move will undoubtedly become the European Central Bank decision on interest rates, an important consideration.

For the ECB, it is now too early to discuss interest rates. The current market concerns, first, when the European Central Bank loans to commercial banks to restart the tendering process, the second is to buy bonds when the exit program. Earlier, European Central Bank officials have said many, not long-term maintenance policy of the previous rescue, suggesting that the policy will give out schedules. Late last month, the European Central Bank officials, Jurgen Stack says that the European Central Bank's emergency assistance policy will not delay the withdrawal.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet 4, did not announce the withdrawal of the new policy content, but at a news conference, said, "next month" to decide whether to launch a new exit policy. The Fed's "rescue" action led to the sharp appreciation of the euro, the ECB has undoubtedly become the most important factors to consider. Early June of this year, the euro against the dollar is still a less than 1.20, nearly five months 20% of the euro exchange rate appreciation, which rely heavily on exports to the European economy is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the euro zone economy is likely to stifle the fragile recovery .

As a pillar of the European economy, Germany, 7-8 two months of consecutive decline in exports. German Engineering Federation President Thomas Lin Gardner warned last week, continued strength of the euro exchange rate will hit the price competitiveness of the manufacturing sector.

Argument from the previous view, in the exit policy, the ECB is clearly better than the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan is more positive. Its current moderate economic growth in the euro area and the price level is satisfactory, it said it would gradually withdraw from the previously adopted emergency policies.

Currently, the European Central Bank is still to commercial banks within the euro zone interest rates to 1% of the 3-month unlimited offer, 1 month and 1 cycle of the central bank borrowings. The European financial markets are gradually returning to normal, 3-month euro area inter-bank lending rate from 0.63% in March rose to 1.049 percent, then if the ECB continues to provide the level of market interest rates lower than the unlimited credit, will no doubt affect the normal inter-bank lending. The market had expected, the European Central Bank will soon stop and the 3-month unlimited borrowing.

In May the European Central Bank began to plan the acquisition of government bonds, and no change in investor worries about the debt of individual countries. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Germany all the way to the spread ten-year bonds climbed, were now close to 840,500 and 390 basis points. Germany's central bank governor Axel Weber, European Central Bank should be to call an early end to debt acquisition, said the policy more harm than good.

Inflation Worries

Of course, in addition to the joint global central banks, the European Central Bank in formulating monetary policy, the first 16-nation euro zone is still considered their economic growth performance and price levels. And the current slowdown in economic growth and rising levels of inflation, the ECB's policy is to increase the difficulty.

Economic growth, surprisingly good in the second quarter data, the current pace of economic recovery in the euro zone is slowing. Manufacturing output data in April and gradually decline after the peak, the euro zone unemployment rate in September climbed to a new high in 12 years. In addition, the euro-zone differences between countries increase economic growth, the three German companies mostly positive quarterly earnings data, economic growth is still far ahead in European countries, while Greece, Ireland, Portugal, debt, economic growth near zero or even negative growth. Between countries, "the strong stronger and the weak weaker," the situation has not changed. Looking ahead, the International Monetary Fund had projected the growth rate of the euro zone next year will fall 1.7% this year to 1.5% next year, the United States increased by 2.6% and 2.3%, still substantially higher than the euro-zone growth.

Slowdown in economic growth, the gap is widening, while the shadow of inflation is also re-hit. This year in October, the price level rose 16-nation euro zone reached 1.9%, the highest value in two years from the ECB's 2% ceiling for inflation control is only one step away.

A new round of Fed monetary policy of quantitative easing Another consequence is that investors seeking to promote oil, metals and other assets, continue to push the current price level. From 8 since the end of dollar-denominated oil prices have jumped nearly 17%. Although partially offset by the appreciation of the euro in euro denominated crude oil price increases, but the future euro-zone inflation continued to climb difficult to change the situation.

At the press conference, Trichet also said that as energy and commodity prices, the euro area will remain the future price level slightly upward trend, the European Central Bank remains highly concerned about the status of the euro area inflation. In the next few months, while the European Central Bank to raise interest rates is still not the policy, but can be expected that the withdrawal of the bailout policies or to put on the agenda.

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