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The following article was published in our article directory on November 4, 2010.
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Article Category: Business
Author Name: Amanda xzh
Perhaps because the role of comprehensive administrative requirements and market the dual effect of regulation could follow the rhythm of the market effects of high and low speed of change, the U.S. federal funds rate (Federal Funds Rate) gradually replaced the discount rate, to play from a macroeconomic regulation.
U.S. federal funds rate is the interbank market, interest rates, is its main overnight lending rate, which can sensitively reflect the changes in capital surplus and deficiency between banks. Fed lending rate target and adjust, can directly affect the cost of funds of commercial banks, and interbank money market information to businesses, thereby affecting consumption, investment and the national economy.
From the December 2008 date, the Fed has been keeping the federal funds rate at a record low point between 0-0.25%. With the second round of the quantitative easing policy introduced, the next period of time, the federal funds rate will continue to maintain this historical lows. Unless the U.S. economy is a significant turn for the better signal, the Fund may only slightly increase the interest rate.
First of all, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has no substantive physical state of the economy has improved. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will be the end of the recession set in the second quarter of 2009, but in fact the end of 2009, early 2010 and complement the economic stimulus effect of the gradual disappearance of inventory, the U.S. economic recovery began to slow down . Real GDP from the fourth quarter of 2009 decreased 5% in the first quarter of 2010 to 3.7%, and further to 1.7% in the second quarter. Moreover, from the existing data, in the third quarter and second quarter data might also be flat, or even slightly down. Has not improved the employment situation, in September unemployment data is still maintained at 9.6 high proportion of continuing claims remained at 3.6; consumer confidence continued to fall, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index from December 2009 high of 74.4 all the way to the stage fell to 67.9 in September 2010. Meanwhile, the inventory continues to rise, according to GDP statistics from 2009 stock -161.8 second quarter rose to 68.8 second quarter of 2010.
Second, the U.S. financial system is too limited to improve the liquidity position. Lack of bank credit expansion in the scale. The first week of October, Bank of America credit scale 681 460 000 000, up just 1.65% annualized, although higher than in 2010, has improved, but not yet, and the level of early 2009; M1, M2 growth is slowing, September M1, year on year M2 growth rate of only 6.3,3, well below the 2009 growth rate. This suggests that as long as the economic stimulus withdrawal, the U.S. financial system immediately to return to the illiquid state. The real economy is still unable to support themselves from the financial system functioning.
Again, the weak dollar is conducive to export expansion strategy and the debt burden reduced. Although Obama put forward a positive export-led economic development strategy of employment, but in fact the second quarter of this year, the U.S. GDP, net exports remained at -3.4%, the relative situation since 2008 and even deteriorated. In this context, the Federal Reserve to adhere to the supply by expanding the U.S. dollar weakening the practice by requiring the other hand, the major exporting countries such as China, the U.S. dollar decoupling, trying to support the U.S. export capacity of the recovery.
In addition, the debt burden of the United States will continue to rise the next few years, and through currency depreciation is a measure to reduce debt levels. Put it more bluntly, that is, repudiate points account. According to the U.S. Treasury Department report in June this year, the balance of U.S. Treasury bonds in 2010 will reach 1.36 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for 93% of GDP. 2015, U.S. GDP, the ratio of debt to rise to 102%, the balance of 19.6 trillion. To this end, the Obama administration will reduce the debt pressure as one of the major policy agenda, by the occasion of quantitative easing, inflation and devaluation by reducing the debt burden of the actual nature may well be an effective measure. Prediction of foreign-related institutions and even, can be reduced by depreciation of the real burden of debt of 5% to about 10%.
The above analysis shows that, due to the current U.S. economic policy in the early phase out after the stimulus did not show signs of anticipatory self-recovery, employment, and even some economic indicators continued to record highs at a disadvantage. Future ultra-low interest rate environment will continue to implement unchanged, so loose monetary policy by the Fed to stimulate the economy is far less motivation. Even if the second round of diminishing marginal utility of quantitative easing, and the absorption of the financial investment system of quantitative easing in the first round than during the real economy has been proved, but in a limited monetary policy tools available under the premise of regulation, continue to use ultra-low the federal funds rate and the purchase of government bonds to the loose monetary policy must remain the Fed's second best option.
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