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« Back to articles from category "Business Management"

The following article was published in our article directory on November 1, 2010.
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Emerging Markets Face Inflation Risk

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Has long been been tireless in addition to the repeated mention of the term financial crisis, monetary inflation is only war, the Korean kimchi crisis, so that already can not afford to eat meat, the Republic of Korea, and even can not afford to eat cabbage.In the unhappy situation of the Federal Reserve on the occasion of deflation, but in some parts of the world may face a greater risk of inflation. Although the International Monetary Fund expects the average inflation rate in emerging markets from the current 5.75% to about 5% in 2011 down, but some developing countries, inflationary pressures continue to increase. India's inflation rate has reached double digits earlier this year. According to the Brazilian central bank said that some economists have six weeks to improve the expected rate of inflation in Brazil during the year.

The current inflationary pressures mainly from three aspects: first is the price. FAO food price index published in August 2008 hit a new high since its thrust is that the grain prices. This inflation in emerging markets a serious impact on the situation: in the emerging Asian countries, the average consumer price index for food in the proportion of the basket as much as 40%.

Second, the emerging markets to prevent currency appreciation the efforts made by the end, may lead to inflation. As the U.S. national debt relative to income is very low in terms of local currency debt, emerging markets absorb the excess cost of issuing bonds in local currency has become very high. The excess liquidity will lead to inflation. At the same time, emerging market central banks, could delay raising interest rates, because they are worried that interest rates will attract liquidity.

Third, the output gap in emerging markets getting smaller and smaller, while the labor market may be getting tight. 2009 economic growth in many countries have declined, and now they quickly recovered. In fact, India and China's economic growth rate was only slightly slowed down there. HSBC Global Asset Management pointed out that Brazil in September this year, the average wage increase of more than 11%. In South Korea, Poland and Chile, the unemployment rate has fallen to the level before the economic crisis.

How do investors protect themselves? One option is to buy bonds and inflation-related topics, although liquidity in emerging market bonds lower rate. Emerging markets for real estate and consumer stocks can hedge against inflation and attractive, especially in view of emerging markets, domestic demand is increasing. Investors will invest large sums of cash as emerging markets, the insurance may be able to add something useful.

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