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The following article was published in our article directory on November 1, 2010.
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States should Develop a more Balanced Source of Growth

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Held in South Korea 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting last weekend. Countries in a joint statement at the closing ceremony promised to take measures to reduce global current account imbalances, to avoid competing devaluation in order to avoid damaging trade restrictions impede economic recovery is still fragile.

Economic weakness in the U.S. and other Western countries compete to currency depreciation, the same time with the fast-growing emerging countries compete with each other, the more tense the situation in the near future. Emerging countries have taken measures to slow down the pace of currency appreciation to defend local producers from the impact of foreign enterprises, and to maintain export competitiveness.

JP Morgan Asset Management believes that all of the above exchange rate policies and the risks posed by the global economy may be overreacting. In fact, investors should not forget the exchange rate only the problem of creditor debt imbalance between developed countries and emerging as a tool, this tool may not be the most effective choice.

Despite the fervent hope that the weak U.S. dollar would narrow the trade deficit with China, but in July 2005 to July 2008 period, the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar increased by about 21%, the U.S. trade balance has continued to deteriorate, and exports to China no special advantage.

We believe that the crux of the problem is actually higher than the export of U.S. consumption, the former accounting for 71% of GDP, imports accounted for 16%; while the proportion of the latter was only 12%. By contrast, China's export capacity is far more than the United States, manufacturing wages are lower than the United States. Therefore, in order to fundamentally solve the problem of trade imbalance between the two countries really need is the structural transformation of the economy, rather than the currency exchange rate movements.

It should be noted, leading to a substantial U.S. trade deficit over the past several reasons for the adjustment is when the economy was in recession, suggesting the need for countries to develop more balanced between the sources of growth, developed countries to reduce consumption, increase consumption in emerging markets.

In the 20 finance ministers and central bank governors of the "Joint Communique", the G-20 promises to intensify structural adjustment, improve the global demand and growth potential, efforts to expand employment; concerned about impact on the global economic recovery at the same time, develop and implement clear, feasible medium-term fiscal consolidation program; continue conducive to maintaining price stability, monetary policy for economic recovery to take more market-determined exchange rate policies reflect economic fundamentals, excessive and disorderly exchange rate fluctuations reduced the negative impact of measures to avoid competitive devaluation.

This shows that the United States and Europe to promote the quantitative easing in lending objectives, and emerging countries, excessive reliance on export-led growth policy, it will postpone global regulation, and to make global trade imbalances worsen.

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