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The following article was published in our article directory on October 27, 2010.
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Exchange Rate War the Worst Moment has Passed

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Held in Gyeongju in South Korea last weekend's Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors to agree on the exchange rate for the first time, it was committed to avoid "competitive devaluation" situation. And our concern is whether this means "the exchange rate war" the worst is now over?

A closer look at the exchange rate of the consensus conference Gyeongju, generally have three main concerns, basically covering the controversy in today's global exchange rate main aspects: First, developed countries need to guard against excessive exchange rate, fluctuations in disorderly, to help emerging economies deal with inflow of hot money problem. The actual consensus is for those who the United States because the U.S. dollar led to the continuous depreciation of the currency junk has caused the bubble to the pressure on emerging economies. German Economics Minister, said at the meeting Bruderle super loose monetary policy of the United States is actually an indirect manipulation of the exchange rate.

Consensus second concern is that countries should gradually to market-oriented, reflecting the close economic fundamentals of the exchange rate policy. For China, this trend will enable China to pressure on the exchange rate formation mechanism reform are growing wider. Gyeongju view from the meeting in Seoul next month's G20 summit, held on the exchange rate is almost difficult to avoid, after all, compared with the previous summit, the current exchange rate of the global economic recovery has become the subject of the most eye-catching.

The third concerns the consensus is more hidden, in some countries the recent meeting of the exchange rate intervention has not made it clear Gyeongju, which actually means that the G20 countries short-term rates of intervention and capital controls to the default attitude. Major economies, in addition to Japan, the first direct intervention in the exchange rate in six years, the Republic of Korea, and Brazil is also related to research or have introduced capital control measures.

Gyeongju consensus of the conference so that we have reason to believe, "currency war" can be avoided. But others are worried that the meeting did not take binding measures, and so may change in the exchange rate of the dispute without the established trends.

"Currency War," what the future will evolve, we must first find out "currency war" the root cause is. Disputes will be referred to the recent exchange rate "currency war" indeed suspected of exaggeration, but the dispute becoming more serious indeed is an indisputable fact. Exchange rate dispute arises, not so much in some countries the "conspiracy" or "Yang Mou," the product of global economic recovery as it is predictable process, a necessary stage.

The reason why the exchange rate will produce dispute is rooted in the uneven global economic recovery, the developed and emerging economies, developed countries, emerging economies are present between the difference in speed and strength of the recovery, it is not synchronized between countries will inevitably lead to macroeconomic policy options and even opposite.

If you look at since the subprime crisis of 2008 exchange rates, you will find there is no unilateral exchange rate fluctuations, the reality is that the exchange rate with the economic development of the situation of power relations and economic changes in two-way fluctuations, particularly the world's main reserve currency dollar in the past two years since both have large fluctuations.

If you understand the "exchange rate Zhan" the fundamental reasons, the States should be more realistic exchange rate disputes hold a "sympathetic understanding", neither the U.S. policy of low interest rates, exchange rate reform in China's gradual, or direct interventions in Japan to a large extent the economic environment are considered for their own "have to." However, due to economic globalization, a country's internal policy, increasing spillover effects, so the major economies of the differences between the macro policy, game, disputes and even the compromise are inevitable.

Today has been impossible to reproduce the exchange rate of the thirties of last century war, the fundamental reason is that the parties have recognized the existence of the global economy is not zero-sum game, the result of the expense of others must not be selfish. Thus, in the era of globalization, the game and compromise should be considered as a positive rather than negative terms. Compromise does not mean that damage their own interests, but vested interests have meant to each other "sympathetic understanding" at the expense of local interests and the interests of the whole wishes to obtain.

In this sense, to really solve the "currency war" can not be taken piecemeal approach, not only from the exchange rate itself cut to "destroy" it, but only through negotiation and compromise to enhance understanding and cooperation, to avoid incorrect negotiations and dispute escalation of the global economic recovery to be fully established, countries tend to coordinate the pace of recovery, the "currency war" to eliminate the risk or the natural trace.

Therefore, the consensus of the meeting Gyeongju quite positive, G20 members to express to avoid misjudgment of the situation which led to disputes upgrade, their should be some convergence of domestic policies will, which sustained recovery in the global economy and create the necessary flexibility in space . Having said that, although the foreseeable future because of the economic recovery of the exchange rate disputes, the situation may be complex and serious, but if the country wishes to Bingcheng Qing State Convention, you can say "currency war" the worst moment has passed.

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