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The following article was published in our article directory on October 26, 2010.
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Global Economic Recession Need to Seven Years

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Throughout the 20th century, several major crises, the recovery process at least every 10 years, now just over 3 years and 7 years of hard days, the global economy will bottom out. Post-crisis era of social security and human resource development ", said.

Global economic imbalances are a major source of this crisis, facing its own economic development issues, the developed economies have started to adjust its economic structure. Our forthcoming "second Five-Year" plan will transform the economic development mode, adjust the economic structure as an important objective.

Mainly due to global economic imbalances between developed and emerging market countries, an extremely long period of normal economic relationship. In the United States, its long-term deficit, liabilities development, so its very serious debt accumulation; and emerging market countries have long maintained trade surpluses continue to accumulate claims on the developed countries, has gradually become creditors, which ultimately led to the development of the world imbalance. To the global economy out of crisis as soon as possible, restored to the normal track of development, we must correct the imbalance.

In order to correct global imbalances, the developed countries have begun to act, the adjustment of the developed economies into four general areas:

First, the correct mode of economic development. The world's major developed economies, neither the U.S. nor Europe are in a state of debt. The development of such liabilities and irrational international monetary system and the combined output of developed economies outside the currency, liabilities development model can survive.

However, in recent years, hopes to change this model to improve the domestic savings rate is increasing. But to achieve this goal, governments must make great efforts. Increase the savings rate, and it is not easy to maintain at normal levels. Increase the savings rate is a process of economic contraction process. From developed economies to adjust economic development of the situation, the crisis can not be over quickly.

Second, the adjustment of economic structure. Developed economies, the government has realized that service, especially in the financial industry too fast, so have put forward the strategic adjustment of economic structure. Bound services, in particular, the excessive expansion of the financial sector; some emerging strategic industries, especially in many developed countries have proposed to revitalize the manufacturing and export plans to revive the reunification of the most basic aspects of economic structure.

Another aspect of economic structure, labor markets need to be adjusted. Developed economies, "now find it difficult in the domestic labor supply and demand balance, then balance the labor market very difficult."

Third, the restructuring of the financial structure. If the over-leveraged financial sector development in the past the main drawbacks, then the adjustment of the financial sector can also be known as deleveraging. Deleveraging involves two issues, namely, the source of funding, for a nation, we must rely on deleveraging, increased savings rate; the second is the process of deleveraging is a process of economic contraction.

Fourth, adjust the tax structure. Fiscal austerity is a painful process, but the economic recovery measures must be taken, the only way to restore the economy to the normal track. In the process of economic recovery, fiscal adjustment is a real variable adjustment.

On China's economic structural adjustment, said Li Yang, the two most important problem is the high investment and low consumption.

Simple way to compress investment is only a temporary, not radical solutions. Optimize the investment structure should start from the first, the pursuit of investment growth from the specialized to the pursuit of employment; the second is the adjustment of space, invest in rural and economically backward areas; third is configured to adjust the industry, from production facilities to changes in social infrastructure ; Fourth, the adjustment of investment from the government and state-owned enterprises mainly oriented to private capital; Fifth, the adjustment of capital structure can not rely on bank loans to support investment activities, the need to provide more equity-type funds, the development of PE and capital markets; Sixth, the adjustment of the investment environment, it seems, the Chinese capital has begun to social infrastructure configuration.

Recovery in the crisis, China will face a variety of complex issues that may become long-term international center of various disputes. All issues will be at her door, including exchange rates, hot money problems. And so on, are behind the international economic imbalances and uneven development of the East and West in it.

China took the lead out from the crisis, but can not stand still. Otherwise, once a few years after the completion of structural adjustment in developed economies, into the track of normal development, and China did not make substantive efforts, when it will be difficult from the Department.

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