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The following article was published in our article directory on October 26, 2010.
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Deflation Vicious Circle has Become a Trend

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

We may feel these things too serious, but that is the case. Although the United States made another wave of measures to revive the economy, but more and more economists are concerned, Europe and the United States may fall into Japanification (Japan based), long-term economic growth is slow, and even the plight of deflation. At present, some economists believe that the United States and Western Europe and other countries are trying from the huge debt and the recovery of the real estate bubble, they can avoid the United States have confidence in the stagnation of the Japanese model, mainly because the American political system coping ability, and the American people tolerate creative destruction of capitalism (Creative destruction) of capacity; and Japan's long-term deflation, the Japanese government at first reluctant to admit the seriousness of the problem, due to strong investment in public works projects to create jobs, and delay the painful but necessary structural changes.

But the fact is that U.S. house prices still "stumble" endlessly, and in the next few decades, the North American real estate boom over the past decade is difficult to occur again; European and American unemployment rate is still high, and difficult to decline. U.S. economic problems of these years, you can use the "one center and two basic points" to indicate - that the housing market as the center, with high debt and unemployment as the basic point. And here, "one center and two basic points", like seesaw, pressing the head, that head will Qiaoqi come. U.S. budget deficit, the amount of debt had reached astronomical numbers, just the federal debt had exceeded 13 trillion! Its budget deficit had risen to 10% of GDP (this is Keynesian shock-and-awe policy), if that means that the government reduce the fiscal deficit to reduce expenditure, reduce the large-scale infrastructure projects and reduce personal consumption, a result the unemployment rate to will further increase.

The employment rate of the decision rests in the hands of entrepreneurs, profit-maximizing decision prompted entrepreneurs. In other words, capital is chasing away the profit, but to maximize profits was determined by the aggregate demand, then the aggregate demand in turn depends on what? Is the mass of the propensity to consume. But in the United States, as the government deficit and real estate expansion cooling, has been unable to provide employment opportunities. Weakened the purchasing power of weak aggregate demand, entrepreneurs, of course, the market is expected to drop, even if companies generate profits, but also as a strategy to preserve their strength hesitant to hire new people. This is the U.S. government throwing money desperately, but the unemployment rate can not drop the real reason.

Rejected from the current consumer spending, business investment down, guarding the cash to the bank lending and so do not fall into the vicious cycle of deflation has become a trend. United States, Britain, Spain and Ireland are suffering from the suffering of Japan a decade ago, personal and corporate debt, they must be in cash to debt, rather than consumption and investment. Europe's economy through the crisis, in the future for a long period of time can only increase slowly, into a "Japanese technology."

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