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The following article was published in our article directory on October 25, 2010.
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To Prevent Extraordinary Asset Bubbles

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

The central bank to raise interest rates has been cautious, one explanation is that policy-makers worried that interest rates will increase pressure on RMB appreciation. The logic behind it is the Government reluctant to allow significant appreciation of the currency, allegedly because of China's export enterprises currently very narrow profit margins, currency appreciation could make export enterprises under attack, thousands of migrant workers will lose their jobs and had to Back to country, and this may lead to social instability. Domestic and even many experts formed a consensus that the "Plaza Accord" is the sharp appreciation of the yen after Japan's "lost 20 years" the underlying causes.

Do not want to let the currency appreciate another reason is the appreciation may lead to very serious asset bubbles. Japan in the last century expansion of the asset bubble in the 80s, almost simultaneously with the occurrence of appreciation of the yen.

Some domestic experts, China's housing bubble is from the 2005 exchange rate policy reforms implemented after the central bank started its rapid formation. The conclusion is to resist currency appreciation, to maintain exchange rate stability, not only to support economic growth, but also can help avoid asset bubbles.

This point of view that are not accurate, some officials may have had an impact. Many facts prove that the real economy including the export sector, the ability to withstand fluctuations in exchange rates is very strong, and will not be an appropriate appreciation of the currency collapse. Currency appreciation will naturally affect investor expectations of asset prices, it is possible to further promote the asset prices. However, if long-term resistance to appreciation, once the exchange rate began to rise, adjustment will be quite large, the greater the risk of asset prices. Japan's economy stagnated for 20 years, not because of currency appreciation, but because the Government has taken a very loose monetary policy, monetary policy is precisely the source of the super-bubble caused.

This is due to the impact of some of the points, some officials and scholars in the emergence of the "fear of appreciation", that appreciation is a bad thing. From early 1998 to early 2010, 12 years, China's real per capita GDP growth of more than 200%, but the level of real effective exchange rate is not what happens. Meanwhile, the economic structural imbalances have intensified, especially large current account surpluses, undervalued exchange rate is seen as evidence of China's international economic root causes of conflict. Now, the U.S. exchange rate is almost imminent war, Americans are concerned about is two things: exchange rate policy is very conservative and very large current account surplus.

Fortunately, the exchange rate policy from the beginning of this year on June 19 there have been loosened, until now, the RMB has appreciated 2.5% against the U.S. dollar. Of course, this appreciation, the time interval is very narrow, mostly in the 10 September occurred a month later. However, if you press the four-month annualized rate of about 7.7% pace of the appreciation of the exchange reform in 2005 -2008 during the period of considerable change in the speed.

Currency appreciation, the interest rate is even more afraid to move, then, really happened in the past happened in the case of Japan. After the first quarter of last year, house prices gains very fast. However, the Chinese government housing bubble with a certain vigilance, from the beginning of this year implemented a series of real estate market regulation policy. However, almost all of the measures are direct intervention needs, including restrictions on the second suite, the third suite and so on, but it has not used the interest rate, liquidity and other traditional monetary policy instruments. No monetary instruments of a price control policy is rather strange, the actual effect is not ideal. In any case, the intent to avoid the housing bubble has been very clear.

It would appear, Oct. 19 decision to raise interest rates is indeed a very important policy. This may suggest that the concerns about economic growth, especially in the second bottom of the world economy has been concerns subsided. Previously have had "first or the first interest rate increase appreciation of" the controversy, now that is basically two go hand in hand. More importantly, the Government by raising interest rates to prevent inflation and anti-foam, started to deviate from Japan's policy trajectory, which is a very positive change. Of course, monetary policy tightening may have been opened first, followed by the central bank should continue to adopt a holistic approach would be more tightening policies, including raising interest rates to control loan growth and margin increase was the proportion of deposits, and so on. The trend of RMB appreciation should also be maintained.

Keywords: china Sodium Metabisulfite, Iron Oxide, caustic soda,

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