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The following article was published in our article directory on October 22, 2010.
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Emerging Market Bubble And Inflation Risk Surface

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

As the proliferation of low-interest U.S. dollar, emerging market bubble of the risk and return of inflationary pressures again. Statistics show that self-depreciation in the dollar this time, emerging market stock index and commodity prices continue to rise.

1 recent months, the U.S. dollar index is down nearly 5.5%. In sharp contrast with the U.S. dollar is the weakness in emerging markets and commodity prices skyrocketed. The same period, Morgan Stanley

Related stock movements

The domestic market, 10 months, A-share market more sustained heavy volume from 2600 up to 3000 points, especially banking, real estate, coal, nonferrous metal plates changed the previous cycle decline class performance eye-catching. CAF Agricole Fund Investment Cao Jianfei, deputy general manager, said the market round up mainly to benefit from ample global monetary liquidity, the next period of time, this pattern is expected to continue.

While the asset bubble, inflationary pressures have not yet great. 21, National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the third quarter, the first three quarters, the consumer price rose modestly, consumer prices rose 2.9% in September consumer prices rose 3.6%, chain rose 0.6%. Although this rate is lower than the market expected, but some experts believe that the recent short-term prices are still imported inflationary pressures and food inflation pressure.

"Fourth quarter is expected to peak C PI will be flat year on year decline. However, while inflation will peak in the short term, but including currency, the cost of agricultural products (000061) power supply shocks such as inflation persists, the overall price decline during the speed and space very limited, prices may still periodically rebound. "Bank (601328) Peng Xiong Financial Research Center, said the International Monetary future flooding and abundant domestic liquidity, food prices, higher labor costs, input factors such as underlying inflation pressures will continue to persist, which could push prices in the fourth quarter of 2011 after bottoming out in the first half continued to drop.

For the two bubbles and inflation risks, the central bank has also been some action. Tuesday night, the central bank unexpectedly announced the increase of one-year deposit lending rate by 0.25 percentage points. Analysts predicted that if economic growth is better to maintain the existing situation and inflation, do not rule out the end of this year may still raise interest rates again early next year, next year will shift to a neutral monetary policy.

The Bank has also issued a warning on the risk of the bubble. The World Bank has urged East Asian policy makers risk of inflation and asset bubbles. The World Bank said the global liquidity chasing a lot of revenue, plus the expected growth in East Asia than other regions, has led to a substantial increase in capital inflows this year. Although the central banks to take on foreign exchange interventions, but the capital inflows are still promoting exchange-rate appreciation and asset price inflation, monetary authorities in most countries has not yet been introduced capital control measures.

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