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The following article was published in our article directory on October 21, 2010.
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The International Financial Crisis has Only Just Begun the Fermentation

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

The international financial crisis has only just begun fermentation. As people get sick, the process of healing, as the initial crisis is that people are "looking for root cause" stage, so the "subprime" and other well-known for the world financial terms. And then "prescribe", instead of laissez-faire state intervention, international economic and political philosophy which is an important shift, and also produce a new Group of Twenty global problems such coping mechanisms. And from 2008 November 20 summit of the Group for the first time since the global response to the crisis into a "look effect" stage. To this end, the discussion of this crisis the impact of the international political situation, both start from the impact of the crisis itself, but also observed "effect" how that "prescription" is not from the "side effects."

Crisis - quantitative or qualitative change

Even change the international political situation, it must be evolutionary rather than leap forward, and in line with the interests of most countries

View from the impact of the crisis itself, the first is the U.S. hegemony have been seriously affected. Economically, the United States, some large financial institutions, investment banks, commercial banks have been bankrupt, and with the credit deterioration of the sharp decline of U.S. manufacturing, which led to the United States to maintain hegemony in the economic base needed to be severely weakened. The more serious than the economic losses, the United States to shape the soft power and global influence depend on the so-called liberal capitalist model has been an unprecedented challenge. In other words, is the U.S. credibility, the impact of the huge loss of less than all of the aircraft carrier. Second, the U.S. dollar under the Bretton Woods system, standard system had been riddled with problems, crisis, its shortcomings were revealed even more, this proposition is in response to the crisis and prevent a recurrence of the crisis can only be reshaping the international economic governance system. But everyone knows that the remodeling process will inevitably change the international political system of governance is associated, this has increased the Group of Twenty of the mechanism.

On the surface, one side is the U.S. so-called "boss" status has been weakened side urgent reform of international political and economic order, it seems that everything is ready, the international political situation also in a time of changes, but the problem is not so simple. In fact, the crisis is to change the international political situation, the impact just stop at the volume level, and not waver from the qualitative basis of the existing structure.

According to American scholar Altman's "four-power structure" point of view, the security structures, the U.S. military as the world's most powerful country, for regional and global security still plays a vital role; in the production structure , the United States is still in the high-end chain and dominant; in the financial structure, the dollar is still the world's leading one of the reserve and settlement currency; in the knowledge structure, the American soft power is still quite a lot, and innovation continues to lead the rest of the world. Thus, while the United States in the crisis "very hurt", but its ability and willingness to maintain the hegemony not lost.

"Prisoner's Dilemma" - cooperation or betrayal

Redistribution of "cake", the re-emergence of protectionism and unilateralism, more serious is the crisis out of the "prescription" have "side effects"

For this financial crisis, countries are well aware, only to change the existing system of international political and economic governance, and strengthen exchanges and cooperation with each other is the response to the crisis, the best solution to prevent the crisis. But game theory has a "prisoner's dilemma," the classic case, the two were talking about how the separate trial of the prisoners cooperate with each other or betray each other choose the ultimate outcome is because the two sides can not be trusted, so both of them end up prison outcome. This case reflects very vividly in the post-crisis era, the mentality of some countries, the international political situation and the resulting subtle changes that occurred.

Start of the crisis, countries have realized that only cooperation can a prosperity, on the contrary will be a loss for both sides. Thus, both European and American countries and emerging economies, domestic and start self-help through state intervention and, externally, will sit together holding co. The positive effects of these practices are effective to contain the spread of the crisis, especially the leaders of the previous meeting of the Group of Twenty, called the Second World War multilateral solutions to global problems through the "golden moment." At that time many people even believe that not only the financial crisis, with the establishment of such multilateral mechanisms, including food security, energy and environmental issues will be resolved and so on.

However, when the post-crisis era, everything seems back to its pre-crisis state. If the crisis, described as the global interest this "cake" is broken, then the response to this crisis, the international community together, "redo the cake." But when "cake" well, should the re-allocation, "Prisoner's Dilemma" type of thinking led some countries, they not only want to own Canada, but also want people to get small. The first is the proliferation of protectionism; followed by the resurgence of American unilateralism, although the name of Barack Obama "reshape America's image," the slogan of the White House, but only few months after taking office, he put considerable The focus on the Iranian nuclear issue, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, Afghanistan and the war in Iraq above, more recently, in East Asia to take a new round of action.

Fermentation - better or worse

Troubled times make the hero, has just begun the fermentation period is also opportunity, who can seize this opportunity, who will be able in a leadership position in the future pattern

In the short term, the early post-crisis era of the international political situation will become worse rather than better; but in the long term, since it is fermented, it means that the old international political structure will be broken down, a new pattern will eventually be established .

Obama just announced on September 6 for a total of 500 billion infrastructure investment plan, the reason for such a move, because the recovery of the United States so far, mainly by the first round of stimulus, and when this round stimulating effects of withdrawal, business investment and consumption are still at low levels, it must begin a new round of stimulus. This is so exciting, and then stimulated, when is the end? This is the international community's concern, but also reflects the rise and fall of great powers the United States can not escape the irresistible law of history. But in the short run, the strength of the United States remains strong, and will maintain its hegemonic position will be the last fight. To this end, the United States to other countries, particularly the suppression of emerging economies will be even more; in some sensitive areas and hot-spot issues, not excluding the United States will show "last crazy."

After the financial crisis and the EU in sovereign debt crisis hit, the ability to resolve in terms of international affairs, become increasingly inadequate, but actually increased its participation in international affairs will, in order to prevent further marginalization. So in the international political situation, the EU will dress up as a more active role, in particular, will intervene in a number of countries the United States and emerging economies is relatively neglected areas, such as climate change problems.

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