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The following article was published in our article directory on October 19, 2010.
Learn more about SpinDistribute Article Distribution System.

Imbalance in world economic recovery and the outlook is not optimistic

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Uneven economic recovery in the world and the outlook is not optimistic about the background, the annual meeting to discuss the main issues include addressing the economic challenges of financial sustainability, and promote IMF quota reform, and improve the international monetary system. The results from the meeting point of view, the annual meeting did not achieve a strong effect on these issues, the economy, "fragmented" gesture to the world economic recovery cast a shadow over the road.

First, substantive meeting with limited success

IMF's Strauss-Kahn said at the annual session, the global economic recovery is not strong, and the uneven recovery in member countries, public debt and rising unemployment is the biggest challenge facing the global economy. To this end, IMF annual meetings to discuss important topics, such reforms, hopes that all countries can strengthen international cooperation to promote global economic recovery. In the annual meeting, the participating Member States reached consensus on some issues, the meeting has achieved initial results. First, IMF policy-making institution, the International Monetary and Financial Committee to the U.S., UK, Eurozone, China and Japan as the global importance with the system of national and regional stability. Second, IMF members agreed to before the end of October this year, IMF-president of governance reform report submitted to share and will share in IMF by the developed countries transfer to emerging markets and developing countries, make their voice and economic power to match. In addition, the annual release of the communique also stressed that the economies of signs of renewed trade protectionism should be avoided.

However, these results can not conceal the annual meeting of the substantive issues in the failure. Most attention in the international exchange rate, clear that the communique, the meeting did not resolve the dispute between the economies of the exchange rate, foreign exchange intervention in the economy pushed the solution to the November summit of the Group of Twenty on OK. And in promoting the issue of global economic recovery, IMF's Strauss-Kahn said the international cooperation "is increasingly loose" on the global economy, "a huge threat." This is mainly the financial position of different countries, economic stimulus is a retreat into, different measures of the economy. This further increased the difficulty of international cooperation.

Although the share of the economy calls for reform of the IMF is high, but the years will still not completed. Institute of International Finance of China, President Charles Daley said recently, international economic forces has been and continues to experience a significant shift, emerging and developing economies significantly improve the status of the world must adapt to this change. Meanwhile, the Chinese included in the five largest economies in the world system is stable, some analysts believe that China should maintain a certain vigilance on this, to prevent the developed economies, China to assume the responsibility of asymmetry.

Second, national fiscal policy different tune

In response to the beginning of 2008, "once" in the global financial crisis, governments have introduced a series of economic stimulus plan, to the national economy hit boost. But recently the United States, Europe and Japan, economies are weakening signs of a recovery trend, which, originally intended to implement "opt out" stimulus Governments have to think twice. On the one hand, exit the program to stimulate the sluggish economy is likely to make matters worse; the other hand, continue to offer economic stimulus plan will worsen the financial situation of governments. Fish and can not have both, so for a variety of economies to consider taking a different fiscal policy. IMF believes that the financial sustainability of some countries is not resolved, all economies must develop a strong medium-term fiscal consolidation program. The economies of the singing in the fiscal policy of the tune, no doubt to the IMF tried to coordinate a global economic recovery, adding a new roadblock.

The United States in February 2009 launched the $ 787,000,000,000 economic stimulus plan has been spending most of the money, but the effect of stimulus has gradually subsided. In the second quarter, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 1.7%, coupled with high unemployment and the sluggish real estate market, have shown that weak U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. government, stimulate economic recovery remains a top priority, therefore, continued expansionary fiscal policy will continue for some time in the future is the main policy orientation.

Unlike the U.S., Europe without the dollar strong international currency status can rely on. Sovereign debt crisis, European countries suffered, it attached great importance to the development of national financial sustainability. Permanent President of the European Council and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso Rompuy said the EU will firmly safeguard fiscal sustainability. As long as necessary, all Member States will take measures to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation. To this end, the EU gradually introduced to reduce public spending, reduce benefits, raise taxes and a series of measures to cut the fiscal deficit, but also through the legislative proposals, to be more severe punitive measures by the EU to strengthen financial discipline.

Japan's economy is relatively high dependence on foreign, largely by the United States and Europe of major developed economies. U.S. and European economic development in the growing uncertainties in the case of the Japanese economy also will lose the momentum of recovery. Although the Japanese government and central bank in August has been to implement a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, but the effect is not obvious.

If the external environment does not improve, lackluster economic recovery in Japan, the Japanese government had to continue to introduce expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, then, has been heavily indebted Japanese government's financial situation will deteriorate further.

Third, IMF reform and highlights the national interests of the game share

IMF quota reform is one of the core issues annual meeting. Back in September last year, the Group of Twenty held in Pittsburgh, the leaders agreed to emerging markets and developing countries in the IMF's share increased by at least 5%. This proposal not only for emerging market and developing countries in recent years, achievement recognition and affirmation also reflects the requirements of these economies continue to raise their voice in the international community's demands. Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences Far East Division that season with the tower, increasing the voice of emerging market and developing countries is the "BRIC" common aspirations. Currently the "BRIC" less than the total share in the IMF of a country's share of the United States, this "unreasonable" pattern is the "BRIC" want to change.

Emerging market and developing countries has developed rapidly in recent years, its total economic volume accounted for the proportion of the world economy on the rise. Economic crisis, the developing economies far better than the good performance of the developed economies. The asymmetry of economic power and voice of the conflict also will be prominent. IMF quota reform can be enhanced through the IMF's legitimacy and representativeness, to truly reflect a country's share in the weight of the world economy.

However, the share of reforms in essence, the vested interests of all economies redistribution is bound to lead to the various stakeholders in the game. United States will certainly not want to give up the veto power, the European countries are also reluctant to be easily cut in the IMF Executive Committee of its two seats. Thus, while the share reform of the IMF has been very high, but not much progress has been slow. United States and Europe have their own calculations, each other share of the game makes the IMF reform delays. This also reflects another side of the developed economies in crisis, Zhigu protect themselves, do not attach importance to cooperation and a common response.

Although the IMF's Strauss-Kahn in a press conference on 9 May, said, IMF quota reform possible in the "few weeks" to complete, but the share of reforms in the annual meeting on the matter once again come to nothing, had people worrying about the future world economy arduous nature of the recovery.

Fourth, the two organizations could do nothing against exchange rate

For the exchange rate, such as the former market expectations, IMF and the World annual meetings will be clear that the failure to reach a significant agreement. Analysts believe that the imbalances in the global context of economic recovery, the economy is the shadow of its economy out of recession as soon as possible, competing for market intervention in currency markets, IMF and World Bank, although this issue is "good intentions", but harder and harder to monetary disputes the "peacemaker."

Recently a series of bearish U.S. data to U.S. government pressure. With mid-term elections approached, the Obama administration to stimulate the economy, reduce unemployment, sluggish domestic demand abroad, turning the occasion of the eye, repeatedly asked its major trading partners currencies. U.S. dollar makes manipulation of the weak dollar, causing the current global chaos in a number of important currencies, a serious threat to the stability of world capital markets.

Japan to boost its exports, in the case of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan in September to intervene in foreign exchange markets, expected by pushing down their currencies stimulate domestic economic growth. In the protection of their trade and economic driven, Switzerland and Brazil the central bank have also intervene in the foreign exchange market currency appreciation. In addition, Korea and other Asian and Latin American countries have also taken action to suppress the national currency.

United States, "The Wall Street Journal," said the depreciation of the dollar is disrupting the world, triggering concerns about a global trade war broke out. Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Truman, a senior scholar, if many countries to take unilateral, uncoordinated actions, especially in direct intervention in the foreign exchange market, could lead to a mess, it is best to make some money should be how to develop a consensus.

However, IMF member countries did not agree on the monetary agreement. At the upcoming summit in Seoul, the Group of Twenty, the participating States will continue to explore monetary issues, to promote the rebalancing of global growth.

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