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The following article was published in our article directory on October 19, 2010.
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Nobel Prize in Economics of Uncertainty

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Nobel Prize in Economics this year can be expected in that: it is certainly not to grant a new representative of classical economics, the reason is out of touch with today's neo-classical economics, is incompatible with the current trend. Not surprisingly, this year's Nobel Prize to the antithesis of neo-classical economics - New Keynesian economics and two other representatives academics.

New Classical economics and New Keynesian economics is the modern West the two main schools of macroeconomic theory, the main difference is whether they recognize the role of the market is defective and whether there is recognition of the need for government intervention. Confrontation of these two schools dates back to the first round of classical economics and Keynesian disputes, a long history.

Before the Great Depression of the 1930s, economic theory has always been respected in 1776, Adam Smith published "Wealth of Nations" Adam Smith is known as the "father of economics." He respected the classical economic theory the market this "invisible hand" automatically adjust role in making effective allocation of resources, supply and demand are met by creating wealth. In short, high hopes on the market.

However, the cycle of economic crisis, the culmination of 30 years to the last century, the Great Depression is difficult to extricate themselves, making it the effectiveness of market mechanisms have a profound doubt, start another way. At this point, Keynesianism emerged, not only to provide economic phenomenon of market imperfections, lack of effective demand alternative explanation, also proposed the Government to use macro-fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate effective demand and promote economic recovery to full employment equilibrium. Keynes's famous sentence is "in the long run, we all die", which means we can not wait to do the slow market where regulation needs to save as soon as possible, as soon as possible from the crisis. Since then, Keynesian macroeconomics occupy the dominant position of over half a century, governments have begun to play an active role in intervention in the economy.

The late 1970s to the early 80s, the United States appeared in a situation of stagflation - a stagnant economy plus inflation. Loose fiscal and monetary policy is only the nominal price inflation, while the substantial inability to promote employment and economic growth. Keynesianism does not work, and then, with Robert Lucas (1995 Nobel laureate in economics) theory of rational expectations, led off the wave of the restoration of classical economics, collectively referred to as neo-classical economics. The theory that the economic entity is reasonably expected subjective flexible dynamic body, if the economic entities of the government action has long been predicted, had combined to go to their behavior choices, then the Government's policy to not achieve substantial role.

Two other representatives of neoclassical economic theory, Kydland, Prescott (2004 Nobel laureate in economics) go more extreme, the introduction of real business cycle theory, that the economic cycle is random by the external technical factors result, the market clearing sound, efficient equilibrium, the unemployment rate is a normal phenomenon. Therefore, we must let the market play the biggest role, but government intervention is haste, less speed regulation. For a time, the strong voice of a free economy, a thriving neo-classical economics, but also in finance 80's of last century the theoretical basis for deregulation.

At the same time, advocates of Keynesian also fought back, maintained the thesis that market imperfections, insisted that the government in a market economy in an important position. They build models to provide micro-foundation for the Keynesian thinking; sticky wages put forward the theory that wages can not be immediately adjusted, immediately clearing the labor market can not, "involuntary unemployment" objective reality exists; proposed transaction cost theory, that prices can not immediately adjust , products and markets do not exist in equilibrium at all times to the point; they made the reasonableness of the bubble, with rational expectations to explain the possibility of a bubble. Stiglitz (2001 Nobel laureate in economics) is the representative of a new Keynesian, they study the asymmetry of market information, market frictions and transaction costs.

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