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The following article was published in our article directory on October 13, 2010.
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Financial Crisis Not Over Currency Crisis Revealed

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

U.S. dollar currency crisis spawned the proliferation of macro-control test of the asset bubble

In response to weakening economic growth and high unemployment situation, the Fed on Aug. 10 to suspend the quantitative easing monetary policy tools of the natural recovery, and in September released a clear signal to continue to expand liquidity. Widely expected, the Fed introduced the fastest in November a new round of asset purchase plan, to promote the weak economic recovery.

Analysts said the U.S. large-scale "quantitative easing monetary policy," no doubt the dollar will continue to reduce, to the significant impact the global financial markets. Currently, all non-US currencies appreciated against the U.S. dollar has been across the board, involved in some developed economies, public intervention in the currency appreciation. For example, Japan's zero interest rate policy the central bank resorted to, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand and Singapore are brewing or take market operations affect the currency exchange rate. Some developed countries took the opportunity to criticize China and other emerging economies, their currencies undervalued ... ... a variety of evidence seems to indicate that "currency war" may thus open the Pandora's box.

Although the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and the G20 summit held in November are interested in coordinating financial policy, the United States a new round of quantitative easing in full swing, Europe, Japan and other countries of the monetary policy will be closely followed. Therefore, some of the major substantial fluctuations in currency exchange rates may be turmoil in emerging markets, commodities markets and asset bubbles may appear. Meanwhile, the currency appreciation too many countries to maintain export competitiveness for the needs of the foreign exchange market intervention, individual emerging market countries restrict capital inflows for the effective implementation of stringent capital controls and the possibility of the increase.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said recently that the uncertainty of the world's largest economy, still need national coordination and cooperation. If countries want the national interests, have a global economy.

Trigger a new round of global monetary asset bubble of war

Guard against hidden inflationary asset bubble of hot money

Regardless of whether the friction between the countries to upgrade the exchange rate, asset price bubbles will become this inevitable consequence of currency devaluation race.

Implementation of the new round of the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the quantitative easing policy, a lot of money Follower of fashion into stocks, bonds, commodities market, not only pushed up the index, also pushed up commodity prices and bond prices. In the international commodity market, in September, cotton, soybeans, industrial metals, precious metals, energy, rose by 20.5%, 14.3%, 9.8%, 9% and 7.9%. Only announced in Japan on Oct. 5 the day of quantitative easing, the price of gold soared to 23.5 U.S. dollars.

Associated with asset price inflation spiraling higher, so that our country face imported inflation pressures. August has been reversing the purchasing price index of the first two months of sharp decline, the chain increased by 10.1% in September this figure further rose to a high of 65.3, which is the international part of an increase in commodity prices shocks. Market participants have warned that the uncertainty of imported inflation increases, increasing the difficulty of managing inflation expectations.

In addition, the war has caused hot money money interest. Major Western countries as interest rates near zero, the inevitable cross-border capital flows to fame and wealth is relatively high return on investment in emerging economies. 6 at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong released a report that Asia will face a new round of capital inflow, increased risk of asset prices. Chief Economist, Asia, the bank said Kwan, the trend of capital flows is just the beginning, the future will be more market volatility, and pushed the currency and asset prices.

The latest central bank data showed, as of the end of August, China's foreign exchange balance of financial institutions to 21.037 trillion yuan, representing an additional 243 billion yuan by the end of July. This is nearly 4 months of monthly foreign exchange for the first time exceeded 200 billion yuan added. Industry generally believe that, after 5 months, 6 months after the adjustment of the yuan appreciation is expected to rise again, hot money is moving from "out" to "flow." Academy of Social Sciences of the international financial world by Zhang Ming, deputy director of that hot money flows turning point has occurred.

Actively respond to challenges of balancing a variety of factors

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Washington recently that China will not let the yuan appreciate faster. RMB appreciation will be gradual, the Chinese currency reform will follow their own pace.

The process of combing the market evolution can be seen, the current tight global monetary system is the real bane of U.S. monetary policy. Economic difficulties the United States needs to pass out, accusing the country, including China, the currency pegged to the dollar, the yuan appreciation. At the same time trying to enhance the export competitiveness of the dollar and reduce the real value of the huge debt. But in fact, the United States to revalue its currency to solve their own problems for the effect is uncertain.

The sharp appreciation of the renminbi will soon bring huge economic impact. Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that "managing the exchange rate policy is a complex art, you need to take into account the level of domestic inflation, unemployment, economic growth, balance of payments and other factors were weighed."

In the interest rate policy, taking into account the uncertainty of the external economic recovery and increase the number of U.S. and Japanese to maintain the same relaxed tone of the market's expectations about the recent interest rate is weakening. Number of agencies expect the trend of rising inflation in 2010 to three-quarter will continue to the end of the fourth quarter CPI is expected to gradually decline.

The international financial crisis has not yet evaporated, a new currency crisis struck. Recent weak dollar, multi-country currencies to intervene the exchange rate triggered a global struggle. Analysts pointed out that volatility in currencies could trigger a trade war, and bring hidden asset bubbles in emerging markets.

Head of the Chinese authorities made clear that China's currency reform will move forward at their own pace, not to let the yuan appreciate faster. Will carefully assess whether to continue implementation of incentives, the current quantitative tools to control inflation expectations remain valid. States should accelerate the reform of the IMF share of the co-operation, enhance the emerging economies in the world economy in the right to speak.

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