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The following article was published in our article directory on October 12, 2010.
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Three Characteristics of Global Imbalances

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

With the global economy has entered a financial crisis after the recovery phase, and then the concept of balance in the United States and the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other international organizations, under the impetus of the world has become a hot topic. The reason for mentioning rebalancing implies a fact behind the judge, and a value judgments. Facts of the case are: the state of the global economy is unbalanced; value judgments: This imbalance is not good.

Three features of the global imbalances

Discussion on global economic imbalances long, not round due to a new international financial crisis, said. In fact, Obama is very happy to the outbreak of the country caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, the international financial crisis, had been in existence due to global economic imbalances, so as to tattoo the U.S. financial supervision, the macro-economic policy errors, and U.S. dollar hegemony for the abuse of the responsibility of the subprime crisis. Since there is a long discussion, the parties to the performance of the global economic imbalances have been a more full understanding, summed up in at least three aspects.

First, global economic imbalances is the most direct expression of the international trade in goods and services related to current account imbalances. The United States, Britain, Greece, Australia, Spain, Italy, for the end of the high-income countries, these countries the long-term current account deficit in the state, from the rest of the world the value of imports of goods and services has been more than they value the contribution of these areas. Huge amount especially in the United States as the most, the deficit every year from 2005 to 2008 were more than seven hundred billion U.S. dollars, the proportion of its GDP that year up to 5% to 6%. Australia's current account deficit for many years more than 5%, Greece in 2007 and 2008, more than 14%. Imbalance in some of the other side of the East Asian economies, oil exporters and some countries in Latin America, and their products to the aforementioned deficit countries for the final consumer market, the annual export of manufactured goods and resources far more than the imports from the industrialized countries products, showed the accumulation of surpluses. In 2008, for example, China, Japan, Singapore, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and other countries the proportion of GDP, current account balance reached 9.4%, respectively, 3.2%, 19%, 6.2%, 8.5% and 12.3%.

Second, global economic imbalances but also in international capital flows and financial assets held by the imbalance. Although the view from the current account deficit countries to surplus countries need to pay huge sums of money to pay for imports of goods and services, but the country does not have to worry about the deficit, because every year more than two trillion U.S. dollars of international capital in a variety of financial instruments form of the flow from the current account surplus countries, the deficit countries, more than enough to pay for the deficit in this country. For example, despite the impact of RMB appreciation, but from 2005 to 2007, China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries and agency debt, or almost doubled. Just look at current account or capital and financial account, high-income countries with manufactured goods and energy-exporting countries there are serious imbalances, but the combined view, which exports a large number of accumulated foreign exchange reserves in dollar-dominated international monetary system is forced to buy U.S. financial assets, thus filling the U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, both sides need each other to form a de facto restricting the dependence of this state by the U.S. former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers called the "balance of financial terror" .

Third, national income, industrial structure and other related savings and investment imbalances. Representation of the view that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke proposed "global savings glut." The implication is that: in some countries because of inadequate social protection lead to higher precautionary savings, high housing prices, income disparities, the proportion of GDP, lower wages because they make the original high propensity to consume lower-middle class have to be curtailed or postponed consumption, The end result of domestic private sector savings surplus. Coupled with underdeveloped financial sector, developed countries can only rely on the financial markets, resulting in continuous flow of these funds in recent years, the United States and other industrialized countries with low savings rate, as support its trade deficit funding.

It should be recognized as a very important academic economists, Bernanke has said the truth of the issues involved; but as Fed officials, Bernanke only willing to give partial truth. While emerging economies with high savings, but these savings as a response to the risk of future payment and preparation, nothing wrong. Is really not sustainable long-term U.S. presence and expanding debt and consumption patterns of the uncontrolled use of dollar hegemony. For example, growth in household consumption has long been the United States far exceeded income growth, resulting in expansion of household debt bubble. U.S. household debt outstanding and the ratio of disposable income in 1975 rose 62% to 127% in 2005. The reason why popular consumption patterns, debt, and protect U.S. hegemony on. As long as the manufacturing countries and energy-exporting countries to produce products, the U.S. can use the future to honor the "currency IOUs" to buy an endless stream of come. From this perspective, instead of blame "global savings glut", rather, is representative of the United States "global purchasing power of the overdraft" or "excess liquidity."

Face of the global imbalances of the three are interlinked and mutually reinforcing. Invest more while spending less savings, products sold abroad more natural to form a trade surplus; increasing the value of the gains from trade for the conversion into foreign assets, the formation of international capital flows. On the surface, whether goods or bonds, as long as someone is willing to buy, some people are willing to sell, the imbalance does not seem a big deal - less developed countries to take advantage of the savings of more safety and liquidity of financial markets, while developed countries to benefit from favorable lending terms more lenient and more abundant cheap goods, why there is "imbalance bad" value judgments?

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