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The following article was published in our article directory on October 9, 2010.
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World Steel the Next Decade Demand and Import and Export Trade Analysis

Article Category: World Affairs

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Financial crisis, the world steel industry began a slow recovery. According to World Steel Dynamics Corporation (WSD) predicts that by 2010 the world steel demand will rise by 13.7% in 2011 increased by 5.8% in 2012 increased by 4.6%. The next few years, the world economy some new situations and new changes will affect the development of the world steel industry and downstream steel demand; the same time, in the present world economic development is an important uncertainty factor is that governments take the loose whether monetary policy can stimulate economic growth continued influence.

1.2009 2012 assessment of developments in the world steel industry

2009 is the addition to China, other parts of the world steel stocks cut the year, around mid-2009 had been completed, and in 2009, apparent consumption of steel in China grew by 20% or more. In addition to other parts of the world outside China, to the end of 2009, steel stocks have dropped to very low levels. 2009 In addition to China, Russia, India and Brazil have a number of low-cost profitable steel companies, many steel companies are unprofitable. 2009 World crude steel production fell 7.3% to 1.23 billion t.

2010, other parts of the world than China to re-increase in steel stocks, and steel demand picked up. To May 2010 steel shipments and prices have been greatly rebounded after a slow decline in steel prices. 2010, China's economy still showing strong growth momentum, the same, rising steel prices and demand, but into the second half of 2010 continued in the real estate industry, the Chinese authorities to tighten monetary policies, China's domestic steel demand is entered a stable phase. Rest of the world than China steel users, as optimistic about the economic outlook, financing increases, steel inventories. 2010 World crude steel production is expected to grow 17.2% to a record 1.44 billion t level.

2011 is the rest of the world, excluding China, growth in steel demand continues to the year, reflecting the recovery in the world economy overall synchronization. On the contrary, China's fixed asset investment decline, leading to a slowing demand for steel. From the rest of the world, the steel consumption expenditure and capital-intensive construction sector began to rebound strongly. World crude steel production in 2011 will grow by 5.4%, to 1.52 billion t.

2012, China's fixed asset investment is expected to continue to slow down the growth rate, China's economic growth also will slow down. However, other developing economies will continue to maintain growth rate and the developed economies from 2011 continued to maintain upward trend. From the perspective of the world economy, will still maintain a certain growth rate. World crude steel production in 2012 will increase 4.7%, to 1.59 billion t.

Since 2009, reduced credit availability, confidence in the market and profit prospects bleak, investors started the construction of longer and machinery manufacturing market sectors have been seriously adversely affected. Field of view from the steel demand, steel demand in advanced consumer durables market, 20% of total demand, the steel market, demand for construction sector accounted for 40%, machinery and equipment manufacturing market, accounting for 40% of steel demand. Therefore, the market usually lags economic recovery picked up, so that other parts of the world except China steel demand is strong pick-up only after 2010, to appear.

Purchasing power parity terms, half of world GDP in developing countries, this development prospects of the world demand for steel is very favorable. Developing countries, the rate of investment in fixed assets (ie fixed assets investment to GDP ratio) high, steel demand is also large. The national savings rate in developing countries, and fixed asset investment rate was also high, compared with the developed countries, its contribution to world GDP growth rate of more, and thus contribute more to world growth in steel demand.

2.development of the next decade the world steel industry of the positive drivers

The current rate of economic growth in developing countries much faster than the developed countries. China's economic growth model requires a very high fixed-asset investment growth. China mainly relies on such a high growth rate of fixed asset investment growth model also used by other countries and regions such as India, the Middle East, CIS and South America are respected and implemented.

Steel consumption intensity per unit of gross domestic product, steel consumption in developing countries remains very high level, the reason is that developing countries need huge investments in infrastructure in the capital, the use of high-tech construction of new plants, in oil and gas drilling , oil transport and increase investment on new energy development, which requires spending a lot of steel.

Recently, the World Steel Dynamics Corporation in 2010 and 2012 the world supply and demand for steel products were analyzed and evaluated. Starting from mid-2009 the world economy to a positive, positive direction, and the vast majority of people the world over the next 5 years is more optimistic about economic prospects, its causes, the severity of the economic recession have eased, and some important problems have been kept will be gradually resolved, such as high oil prices and high risk of global financial system have been properly addressed. Nevertheless, the world real demand for steel rebound is lagging behind the economic recovery, the reason is that fluctuations in the actual demand of steel with the region is closely related to fixed asset investment cycle.

The third quarter of 2010, the world steel demand will rise again in the second quarter of 2008 had reached the peak value over the level, of which China is a major contributor to other developing countries is another factor promoting the growth of steel demand, the developed countries to After the beginning of 2012 to reach the highest peak level of steel demand. In 2008, world crude steel production fell 1.4%, steel demand increased by 2%. In 2009, world crude steel production fell 7.3% again, fell to 1.23 billion t; steel demand is down 7.1% to 1.25 billion t.

Looking to the future development prospects of 3 years in 2010, world crude steel production will rebound 17.2%, 13.7% of steel demand will increase, rose to 1.42 billion t; 2011 World crude steel production will lead to further growth of 5.4%, rose to 1.52 billion t, steel demand will be increased by 5.8% to 1.5 billion t; 2012 World crude steel production in turn increased by 4.7% to 1.59 billion t, steel demand growth of 4.6%, to reach 1.57 billion t. It should be noted that the second quarter of 2008, converted into annual world crude steel production and steel demand reached 1.46 billion and 1.43 billion t t, which is the highest level in history.

3.2012 to 2020 during the world steel demand and predict China's steel demand

In the next few years, the world economy will continue to grow, the reason is, the information revolution will have a major impact, the information revolution not only promote world economic growth, but also inflation, this is because most of the information revolution to improve industry sector's competitiveness. The faster growth of the world economy is that the information revolution to cut costs and explore the past, many have not used the production capacity, thereby promoting the commercialization of new technologies and reduce the cost of new investment in plant and improve price competitiveness. During the period 2003-2007 the world economy has maintained rapid growth. In 2003 the average world GDP growth rate of 3.6%, 4.9% in 2004, 2005, 4.5% in 2006 to 5.1%, 5.2% in 2007. Affected by the economic crisis of 2008, the world average GDP growth rate declined to 3.0% in 2009, the world economy into recession, the world's average GDP growth rate of -0.6%. 2010 and 2011 the average growth rate of world GDP is expected to reach 4.2%, respectively, and 4.3%.

If the world economy to maintain rapid growth, then the investment in fixed assets need to play a greater role. Since 2002, fixed asset investment increased as GDP growth is an important reason. If the rate of fixed asset investment in China remains at a high level elsewhere in the world economy has continued growth momentum, and a recovery in economic growth in developed countries, then in the next decade, the world's steel demand growth outlook is good. Meanwhile, the national savings rate is to determine the maximum rate of investment in fixed assets is an important factor. India in the next 10 years if the growth rate of steel demand in China's steel demand over the past 10 years, the growth rate, then the national savings rate needed to maintain growth momentum. India's national savings rate (that is, the balance of national savings ratio to GDP) is about 32%, while China was 51%.

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