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The following article was published in our article directory on October 8, 2010.
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U.S. Weak Space Very Limited

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Last week, the Fed's regular meeting on interest rates and after the summary statement that due to the current core inflation rate is low (1%), and may further decline, the Federal Reserve may purchase government bonds to expand the program. The market is very sensitive to this news, then boost the U.S. bond market, the dollar fell across the board, the dollar index fell below 80. In mid-August I had the time when the dollar is not published an article that continued strong U.S. dollar short-term, I believe that the three reasons for not supporting a strong dollar, the Fed will once again enable the quantitative easing policy is one of the most important reason. The other two reasons for the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit and the downturn in the second quarter economic data.

Looking ahead, the dollar will continue weakening, but the depreciation of the space is also limited for the following reasons:

First, the weak dollar would help U.S. economic recovery, further economic stimulus the U.S. economy will avoid "double dip." August, unexpected rise in major U.S. real estate data shows that the slump in the housing market or coming to an end, the seasonally adjusted housing starts increased significantly by 10.5% to an annual rate of 598,000 units, higher than expected. Building permits increased 1.8% month to an annual rate of 569,000 units. Both housing starts and building permits data show improvement in U.S. real estate market trend in the future. August, the United States does not include transport equipment, other durable goods orders increased 2.0%, higher than expected level of 1% (but subject to significantly reduce orders for aircraft and vehicles, dragged down seasonally adjusted, transportation equipment, orders fell 1.3%) . Core capital goods orders rose 4.1% (in July were down 5.3%), orders for core capital goods exports increased by 1.6% (7 on a monthly increase of 0.1%). Since the third quarter, a seasonally adjusted quarter, core capital goods orders rose by 2.1% qoq (quarter of the second quarter rose 30.8% qoq). July and August, shipments of core capital goods (a proxy for business equipment consumption) has risen 10.3% over the second quarter, and contributed to positive GDP. Meanwhile, some optimistic data also support a soft landing for the global economy: in September, the German IFO climate index rose to 106.8 in June 2007 reached its highest level since.

Second, for some time, optimism about the European economy will gradually fade as the European three to four quarter economic growth will be significantly lower than the second quarter. Recent negative news reports in Europe: First, macroeconomic leading index turned negative. September Eurozone PMI index fell 1.5 points to 53.6. Germany's PMI index fell 2.9 points to 55.3, while the French PMI index rose slightly to 55.4, the two major economies Germany and France is still the locomotive of Europe, but the upward trend has shown weakness. Second, the euro-zone orders declined. July orders for the euro area fell by 2.4% qoq, with the June increase of roughly even. Third, in a revival of the Irish quarter, the economy has turned sluggish in the second quarter GDP quarter, a decline of 1.2%. In addition, Japan and the United States, compared to fiscal policy, euro area to take more tightening of fiscal policy, which will promote the European Central Bank to ease policy to ease the financial market downturn. Correspondingly, the German 10-year bond yield rate of less than 2.3%. Meanwhile, eurozone bond spreads gradually expanded to Ireland and Portugal, the most significant gap between Spain and the "European pig Five" as the widening of spreads. Therefore, I believe that had the worst debt crisis in Europe Although the period, but still far from fully resolved. All these factors will limit the euro's upside.

Third, the Japanese economic weakness, the yen will continue to strengthen. Today, the yen reached the highest level in 15 years. The short term, foreign investors actively buying yen assets, is to promote the yen is relatively scarce, driving the main reason for the yen rose. But I believe that the domestic economy can not afford a weak yen continues to strengthen. In the long run, the Japanese economy contracted serious deflation, interest rates to zero, coupled with an aging population trend in the country, not to support them to take a strong currency.

No longer strong yen, mainly consider the following three reasons: first, the Japanese authorities have recognized the seriousness of the domestic economy and deflation. Experienced a long period of inaction, taken by the Bank of Japan has made clear that non-sterilized intervention to relieve the amount of funding. Secondly, in theory, at any time the Bank of Japan to provide over-supply of yen rose sharply against the yen. The author believes that the Bank of Japan whether to take this action, depending on their degree of tolerance on prices, the current deflation in Japan in general, non-sterilized intervention by the monetary authorities can be said that there is no worry about the yen. Third, the yen has risen too. Since 2008, the yen has appreciated 30% against the dollar, the euro appreciated nearly 50%, this clearly can not be attributed to the sharp appreciation of the domestic price level down, it has been too much yen appreciation. Therefore, the Government of Japan intervention, the trend of a stronger yen can not be sustained.

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